Analysts: Egypt, Turkey Don't Seek Direct Confrontation in Libya

Forces of the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, control eastern Libya and most of its oil wells. Since April 2019, the LNA has launched an attack on the forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA), headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, aimed at controlling Tripoli, but it has recently retreated.

"Egypt has direct security interests in Libya, and the presence of a security partner to work with in eastern Libya is of utmost importance to Cairo. Thus, they were very concerned about Haftar's reckless adventure," analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations Tariq al-Magrisi told the France Press Agency on Monday.

Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011, Libya has been in chaos. Since 2015, the two ruling powers have been in conflict - the GNA based in Tripoli (west), and a parallel government supported by the LNA Commander Field Marshal Haftar in the east of the country.

Haftar does not recognize the legitimacy of the Sarraj government, which was formed under the Skhirat Agreement in Morocco, under the auspices of the United Nations in December 2015.

Haftar's forces retreated to the city of Sirte, the eastern entrance and oil fields.

Egyptian Initiative on Libya

Al-Magrisi believed that Egypt is still "investing in promoting a diplomatic project, and providing political and military support to the LNA."

This can be demonstrated by the appearance of Haftar with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo on Saturday, when the latter pushed him to a cease-fire to buy time as part of a new political initiative to resolve the conflict in Libya under the title "Cairo Declaration."

This initiative did not find much support from the GNA, due to its recent military victories.

The political analyst stated that “Egypt is searching at the same time for other options and ways to secure its interests, as it has become less certain that Haftar will win.”

Among the main aspects of this alternative plan, according to Al-Magrisi, is that Egypt and Russia "work together on political alternatives to Haftar that may be able to preserve their sphere of influence in eastern Libya."

Aguila Saleh, the Libyan Speaker of the House of Representatives stationed in the east, is among these alternative personalities, especially with his presence in Cairo to attend the Sisi and Haftar talks despite his differences with the latter.

[caption id="attachment_130747" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi (c), Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh (L) and LNA Commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar (R)- Press Photo[/caption]

An Egyptian military expert believes that Ankara and Cairo do not want a direct confrontation, according to the AFP. 

"Egypt's interests in Libya and the Mediterranean are primarily the security of its western borders and its economic sovereignty, said the military expert whose name is not disclosed in the French agency’s report.

He predicted that “Turkey will likely respect the security and economic interests of Egypt to avoid any form of direct confrontation."

After Haftar's forces retreated from the southern suburbs of Tripoli, Emirati political science professor Abdel Khalek Abdallah wrote on Twitter "Tripoli has become the first Arab capital to fall under the Turkish occupation."

[caption id="attachment_129256" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Turkish Fatih Drill Ship[/caption]

On the other hand, analysts say that if Egypt is likely to invest more in protecting its interests in the east, it does not want a direct confrontation with the main supporter of the GNA.

Ankara signed two agreements in November with the GNA, one of which is a military stipulation that Turkey provides military assistance to it, and the second deals with the demarcation of the maritime border between Libya and Turkey.

Sisi urged international support for the peace initiative. The response came quickly, with the support of France, Russia, Jordan, Saudi and the United Arab Emirates. Hence, the Egyptian president asked the United Nations to invite the conflicting East and West in Libya for talks.