Gold Posts a Fourth Consecutive Weekly Loss, Heads for Its Worst Monthly Performance of 2026

Marsad Al Dahab reported that gold prices in Egypt's local market continued to rise on Saturday despite the closure of global bullion markets for the weekend, following Friday's rebound. Meanwhile, spot gold ended the week down 1.6%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss, as persistent U.S. dollar strength and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer continued to pressure the precious metal.

The price of 21-karat gold in the Egyptian market rose by approximately EGP 55, reaching EGP 5,800 per gram compared with Friday's close. Spot gold finished the week at $4,088 per ounce, down $67 from the beginning of the week.

Meanwhile, 24-karat gold traded at around EGP 6,629 per gram, 18-karat gold reached EGP 4,972 per gram, while the gold sovereign was priced at approximately EGP 46,400.

On Friday alone, 21-karat gold gained around EGP 45, opening at EGP 5,700 and closing at EGP 5,745. Spot gold also rebounded by approximately $59, climbing from $4,029 to $4,088 per ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields following the release of U.S. inflation data.

Marsad Al Dahab noted that Egypt's domestic gold market continues to trade at a premium of nearly EGP 120 above its fair value based on international gold prices and the official exchange rate, while the Egyptian pound remained stable at around EGP 49.60 per U.S. dollar, according to the Central Bank of Egypt. The premium reflects continued hedging activity by some dealers alongside improving domestic demand as prices recovered from their recent correction.

Despite Friday's rebound, gold failed to erase its weekly losses after coming under heavy selling pressure earlier in the week due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising real Treasury yields. During the selloff, spot gold briefly fell below the $4,000 level, touching its lowest price of 2026 at $3,959 per ounce, before recovering to finish the week back above the psychological threshold.

Marsad Al Dahab believes this week's price action signals a shift away from a market driven primarily by geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand toward one increasingly influenced by U.S. monetary policy, interest-rate expectations, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Across multiple time frames, gold ended the week down 1.6% and is on track to post its worst monthly performance of 2026. The metal has fallen by approximately $452 since opening June at around $4,540 per ounce, representing a monthly decline of nearly 10%. Since the beginning of the year, gold has also declined by around $230, or approximately 5.3%, from its opening level of $4,318 per ounce. It currently trades about $1,538, or more than 27%, below its all-time high of $5,626 per ounce, recorded on January 29.

The recent weakness has largely been driven by higher real interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. However, softer U.S. inflation data provided some relief at the end of the week by easing expectations for additional monetary tightening.

Marsad Al Dahab considers $4,000 per ounce to be a critical psychological and technical support level. Holding above this level could pave the way for a recovery toward $4,100–$4,200, while another decisive break below it could trigger renewed selling pressure and expose the market to lower price levels.

International market sentiment remains cautious ahead of next week's U.S. labor market data, which is expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, consequently, gold's short-term direction.

Among major financial institutions, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its year-end 2026 gold forecast to around $4,900 per ounce. Deutsche Bank expects gold to average near $4,300 during the third quarter before recovering to around $4,800 in the fourth quarter, while JPMorgan remains considerably more bullish over the longer term, projecting prices could approach $6,000 per ounce.

According to Marsad Al Dahab, these forecasts highlight the growing divergence between the short-term outlook—dominated by interest rates, Treasury yields, and U.S. dollar strength—and the longer-term outlook, which continues to be supported by central bank purchases, sovereign debt concerns, geopolitical risks, and ongoing reserve diversification away from fiat currencies.

Marsad Al Dahab believes that the current rebound should not necessarily be interpreted as the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Instead, gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks as investors react to incoming U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve signals, Treasury yields, and currency movements. Risk management, therefore, has become more important than attempting to predict short-term market tops or bottoms.

In Egypt's domestic market, prices may continue to rise at the start of the new trading week, driven not only by firmer global prices but also by the widening local premium, continued dealer hedging, and improving consumer demand following the recent correction.

Marsad Al Dahab also believes that current price levels remain attractive for long-term investment, provided investors avoid deploying all their capital at once. A gradual accumulation strategy, building positions over multiple stages and averaging purchase prices, remains the most prudent approach amid elevated market volatility.

Overall, the current correction does not signal the end of gold's long-term bullish trend. Rather, it reflects a more complex market environment in which gold prices are increasingly shaped by the interaction of Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, investment demand, and central bank buying. Elevated volatility is therefore expected to persist before a clearer long-term trend emerges.