Gold Nears $4,200 Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Rate-Cut Expectations

Gold prices continued their record-breaking rally in both local and global markets on Tuesday, reaching new all-time highs as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and persistent global political and economic uncertainty fueled safe-haven demand, according to a report by iSagha, a platform specializing in gold and jewelry trading.

Saeed Embabi, CEO of the platform, said that local gold prices rose by around EGP 50 during today’s trading compared with the end of last week’s session on Saturday. The 21-karat gold gram reached EGP 5,550, while the international ounce price climbed by about $30 to $4,140.

Embabi added that 24-karat gold recorded EGP 6,343, 18-karat stood at EGP 4,757, and 14-karat at approximately EGP 3,700, while the gold pound coin stabilized at EGP 44,400.

On Monday, local gold had already gained about EGP 100, with the 21-karat gram opening at EGP 5,400 and closing at EGP 5,500, while the global ounce surged by $93, from $4,017 to $4,110.

Globally, gold touched another historic high near $4,180 per ounce during Tuesday’s session, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank. Nguyen attributed the jump to intensifying trade frictions between Washington and Beijing after China imposed sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of a South Korean conglomerate in retaliation for recent U.S. measures targeting China’s shipping industry.

She noted that these developments signaled a potential escalation between the world’s two largest economies, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset ahead of the anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea.

Since the start of the year, gold prices have surged more than 57%, breaking above $4,100 per ounce for the first time in history. The rally has been driven by multiple factors, including expectations of U.S. interest-rate cuts, massive central-bank purchases, and robust inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Market data shows that the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with a 99% probability, followed by another reduction in December, priced in at 94%. Investors are now focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the National Association for Business Economics conference for clues about the next policy direction.

Analysts at Bank of America and Société Générale project gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered revised its 2026 average forecast upward to $4,488.

Meanwhile, China reignited trade tensions by announcing expanded export restrictions on rare-earth minerals, while Trump escalated his rhetoric with new tariff threats, deepening caution across global markets.

Investors are also monitoring political uncertainty in France, following the resignation and reappointment of the prime minister, as well as turbulence in Japan after the collapse of the long-standing ruling coalition. In the United States, the prolonged government shutdown has entered its third week, adding to global economic uncertainty.

Amid these circumstances, gold shows no signs of slowing down. The metal has risen more than 50% since the beginning of the year and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by growing safe-haven demand and waning confidence in fiat currencies.