Central Banks Redraw the Global Reserve Map as the Dollar Loses Ground and Gold Gains Momentum

A new study released by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) has revealed a significant shift in the reserve management strategies of central banks and sovereign investors, showing for the first time that more central banks intend to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar over the next decade than those planning to increase it.

The survey covered 90 central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and public pension funds managing more than $10 trillion in assets, making it one of the most influential assessments of official reserve management trends worldwide.

Although the U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency, supported by deep financial markets, higher U.S. interest rates, and continued demand for safe-haven assets, the report indicates that political risks, geopolitical tensions, and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. policymaking are prompting official institutions to reassess their long-term dependence on the dollar.

According to the survey, 79% of central banks believe the global monetary system is gradually evolving toward a multipolar structure, where international reserves are distributed across multiple currencies and assets rather than being concentrated overwhelmingly in the U.S. dollar.

The report also highlighted increasing interest in reserve currencies such as the Norwegian krone, the New Zealand dollar, and the British pound, while central banks continue expanding allocations to the euro and the Chinese yuan despite acknowledging that neither currency currently represents a complete alternative to the dollar.

Gold Strengthens Its Strategic Role in Global Reserves

Gold emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries of this structural shift.

The OMFIF survey found that 82% of central banks currently hold gold as part of their official reserves, up from 71% a year earlier, while a net 30% of respondents plan to increase their gold allocations over the next one to two years.

These findings reinforce the conclusions of the World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which showed that 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the coming 12 months—the highest proportion recorded since the survey began.

The continued accumulation reflects the growing perception of gold as more than a traditional reserve asset. It has become a strategic hedge against geopolitical risks, financial market volatility, and uncertainty surrounding the international monetary system.

The report also noted that 61% of respondents expect gold prices to trade between $5,000 and $6,000 per ounce by June 2027, while only 28% believe current record-high prices could discourage further purchases.

These results suggest that official institutions increasingly regard gold as a permanent component of reserve management rather than merely a temporary response to elevated prices. Continued official-sector demand could therefore provide long-term support for the precious metal despite short-term fluctuations driven by the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

Central Banks Accelerate AI Adoption

Beyond reserve diversification, the report revealed a rapid acceleration in the adoption of artificial intelligence across central banks.

More than two-thirds of surveyed central banks expect to expand the use of AI technologies in the near future, particularly in data analysis, investment decision-making, risk management, and operational efficiency.

The survey also showed that no central bank in advanced economies considers its current level of AI adoption sufficient, underscoring the growing importance of AI as a core institutional capability.

Real Assets and Emerging Markets Gain Favor

The survey further highlighted a notable shift in institutional investment preferences.

Real assets—including infrastructure and real estate—ranked as the most attractive investment category, with approximately 60% of public-sector investors planning to increase allocations over the next two years.

Meanwhile, interest in emerging markets continued to strengthen, with 38% of respondents intending to raise exposure, compared with 27% in last year's survey.

Conversely, only 25% of institutions expect to increase investments in advanced economies, down sharply from 47% a year earlier, signaling a meaningful rebalancing of global capital allocation.

Despite these changes, the United States and China remain the world's two most attractive investment destinations, largely supported by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technologies and the significant investment opportunities they continue to generate.

A New Phase for the Global Monetary System

Taken together, the survey's findings indicate that official institutions no longer view today's heightened market volatility as a temporary phenomenon but rather as a lasting feature of the global financial landscape.

While the U.S. dollar is unlikely to lose its reserve currency dominance in the foreseeable future, the study suggests that central banks are steadily reshaping their reserve strategies by increasing exposure to gold, diversifying into additional currencies, embracing real assets, and integrating artificial intelligence into investment management.

Rather than signaling the end of the dollar's supremacy, these developments point to the gradual emergence of a more diversified and resilient global monetary system—one in which gold is reclaiming an increasingly strategic role.