Afreximbank: Africa Positioned to Transform Geopolitical Turbulence into Long-Term Opportunity

Africa has the capacity to transform ongoing global geopolitical disruptions into long-term economic opportunities, according to the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), which says the continent is entering a pivotal phase of structural economic strengthening despite global uncertainty.

In its 2026 edition of the flagship African Trade Report, titled “Harnessing Geopolitics for African Global Trade and Industrialization”, the development bank provides a comprehensive assessment of trade and economic trends across Africa and the global economy in 2025, while outlining strategic pathways for the continent to convert geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain disruptions into sustained resilience and growth.

The report highlights that Africa’s economic performance has remained resilient despite significant global headwinds driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting trade patterns. While global growth slowed to 3.4% in 2025 and is projected to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, Africa’s real GDP growth rose from 3.4% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, outpacing the global average and reflecting strengthening underlying fundamentals across the continent.

Trade performance also showed notable expansion, with African merchandise trade growing by 6.1% to approximately $1.5 trillion, underscoring the continent’s increasing integration into global supply chains despite persistent external shocks.

At the same time, inflation across Africa declined sharply from 21.6% in 2024 to 13.1% in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic management, ongoing policy reforms, and targeted interventions by development finance institutions aimed at stabilizing economic conditions.

Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director for Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, said Africa stands at a critical inflection point as global economic fragmentation reshapes trade flows.

“Geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are redefining global trade patterns, but they also represent a historic opportunity for Africa,” Kale said. “By strategically leveraging these shifts, the continent can build a more resilient, competitive, and inclusive economic future.”

He stressed the importance of accelerating regional value chains, expanding industrial capacity, improving trade finance access, and advancing continental integration. According to him, coordinated policy action and strategic infrastructure investment are essential to building a more robust African trade ecosystem.

The report also highlights a persistent structural constraint: a $74 billion trade finance gap in 2025, which continues to limit Africa’s export potential. This challenge is compounded by foreign exchange shortages and a gradual decline in correspondent banking relationships, both of which restrict cross-border trade efficiency and industrial expansion.

In addition, global shipping rerouting and prolonged logistical disruptions have increased delivery times and raised transportation costs, disproportionately affecting African economies that remain heavily dependent on imported inputs and external markets.

Afreximbank outlined several strategic priorities to address these challenges, including faster implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expansion of digital payment infrastructure through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), and coordinated reforms of global financial architecture to better support developing economies.

The bank also emphasized its growing role in supporting Africa’s economic transformation. As a founding member of the African Association of Multilateral Financial Institutions (AAMFI), Afreximbank disbursed $17.5 billion in 2024 and is working to double intra-African trade financing by 2026. The PAPSS platform is already helping reduce transaction costs and limit reliance on foreign currencies across the continent.

With continued geopolitical uncertainty reshaping global supply chains, the report argues that Africa’s ability to capitalize on these shifts will depend on strengthening industrial ecosystems, expanding intra-African trade, and enhancing coordinated financial support mechanisms.

Ultimately, Afreximbank concludes that Africa’s long-term growth trajectory will hinge on policy alignment, strategic investment, and accelerated integration—positioning the continent not merely as a participant in global trade realignment, but as a potential beneficiary of it.

The institution itself, headquartered in Cairo, Egypt, has evolved into a pan-African financial group comprising its development finance arm, the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), and its insurance subsidiary AfrexInsure, reinforcing its role in supporting trade-driven transformation across the continent.