US Unemployment Hits Four-Year High

The U.S. labor market showed fresh signs of strain in October, with unemployment climbing to its highest level in four years amid a slowdown in hiring and a surge in layoffs, according to new estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The regional Fed projected that the national unemployment rate rose to 4.36% in October, up slightly from 4.35% in September, marking the highest reading since 2021. The estimate comes as federal data releases remain largely suspended due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has halted the flow of official reports from the Labor Department, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau.

The Chicago Fed’s projections, typically released twice a month, have become a key proxy for analysts seeking to assess labor market trends in the absence of official data.

Adding to concerns about the U.S. job market, a separate report from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that American employers announced more than 105,000 job cuts in October, the highest October total since 2003.

So far this year, companies have eliminated over one million jobs, the most since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, hiring plans have fallen to their lowest level since 2011, signaling a deepening cooling in labor demand.

Seasonal hiring, typically a bright spot in the months leading up to the holiday shopping season, has also weakened sharply. According to Challenger’s data, planned seasonal jobs through October are at their lowest since tracking began in 2012.

Economists say the combination of rising unemployment and slower hiring could put additional pressure on the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve as they navigate a delicate balance between taming inflation and sustaining economic growth.

While inflation has eased in recent months, persistent job losses and weakening consumer sentiment could test the resilience of the U.S. economy heading into 2026.