The Second War on Iran & Reshaping of Global Energy Map

​As Iran announced it is considering a suspension of Middle Eastern oil exports until further notice, the Wall Street Journal quoted informed officials stating that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest release of strategic petroleum reserves in its history.

This move aims to contain prices amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, with a proposed withdrawal of 182 million barrels. Media estimates suggest that a projected deficit of 15 million barrels per day in the global oil market bolsters the likelihood of prices surging to approximately $150 per barrel, while a $200 scenario remains plausible. Notably, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange fell sharply on March 9 as crude oil prices spiked and global financial markets tumbled, with the main index dropping by 3.4%.

​Building on this, the New York Times explained in an article published yesterday that the Trump administration and its advisors miscalculated Iran's reaction to the war and its impact on oil markets.

Last week, the Treasury Department granted an exemption to India, allowing it to continue purchasing Russian oil. Amid fears of escalating inflation driven by rising oil prices, the G7 is considering the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves.

Meanwhile, China is building its own strategic stockpile and enhancing energy security in anticipation of short-term supply disruptions by intensifying its crude oil purchases. Its imports reached nearly 97 million tons in the past two months, with Russia accounting for 20% of China's total imports. Chinese refineries are also operating at high utilization rates, reflecting the readiness of both China and the G7 to use strategic tools to address the sharp rise in oil prices.

​Coinciding with the Israeli attack—for the first time since the war began—on targets in southern Iran, specifically Shiraz, the Ynet website published an article by writer Avi Issacharoff. He warned against rushing to propose an ambitious vision for a "New Middle East" before achieving realistic war objectives. He noted that the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution has not altered the stability of a regime that possesses established succession mechanisms. Issacharoff criticized the Israeli government for its lack of clear objectives, asserting that the true goal must focus on halting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs through diplomatic pressure backed by military force. He also noted that Gulf states are likely to pressure Washington toward decisive military action against Iran to ensure a reshaping of the regional balance of power.

​Media outlets in Tel Aviv have circulated reports regarding deliberations within security agencies concerning the future of the Iranian regime. These discussions concluded that the fall of the Tehran regime will not occur during the current war, but rather gradually afterward, driven by factors led by growing political and economic pressures.

Additionally, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) published an op-ed by Ofer Shelah, who argues that reopening the Lebanese front could have a significant impact on Israeli public opinion due to the need for a massive call-up of reserve forces.

The Times of Israel further noted that a prolonged war against Iran would weaken Israel's strategic standing, particularly regarding American support post-Trump. It characterized the situation as a continuation of the failed military approach since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, which effectively turned Iran into a nuclear threshold state.