A study issued by The Marsad al-Dhahab for Economic Studies revealed that the “Akshaya Tritiya” season in India—one of the largest gold-buying periods globally—plays a significant role in shaping global demand dynamics and gold prices, given India’s position as the world’s second-largest gold consumer.
According to the study, which covers the period from 2018 to 2026, demand associated with this season contributes to moving global markets, accounting for between 1% and 2% of India’s total annual gold demand within a single day. This, in turn, affects supply-demand balances and price trends in international markets.
The study indicated that the impact of the season is no longer confined to the Indian market, but extends indirectly to other markets, particularly in the Gulf region, through demand linked to Asian expatriate communities, in addition to the region’s role as a major hub for gold trade and re-exports.
Dr. Walid Farouk, Director of the Marsad al-Dhahab, stated that demand movements in the Indian market during this season have become an influential factor in the global supply-demand balance, especially as markets grow increasingly sensitive to changes in actual demand.
He added that the study observed a gradual shift in the nature of demand in recent years, particularly between 2024 and 2026, where the volume of actual sales during the festival season declined, while total value increased due to prices reaching record levels.
The study noted that gold prices in India approached 95,000 rupees per 10 grams in 2025, which impacted consumer behavior, with a growing shift toward gold coins and low-cost investment products instead of high-interest-charge jewelry.
According to data from the World Gold Council, investment demand in India rose by 17% in 2025, reaching its highest level since 2013, while jewelry demand declined by about 24% year-on-year, reflecting a shift in demand from consumption to investment.
The study also highlighted the growing reliance on alternative investment channels, including gold exchange-traded funds, alongside an increase in gold recycling activity amid persistent global price pressures.
Implications for Gulf Markets
The study pointed out that the impact of the “Akshaya Tritiya” season extends indirectly to Gulf markets, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, through demand linked to Asian expatriate communities, especially the Indian community.
It added that part of the region’s gold sales during these periods is tied to Asian cultural and religious occasions, not solely domestic demand, in addition to the role of markets such as Dubai as a regional hub for gold trade and re-export.
It further explained that the rise in global prices during 2024 and 2025 contributed to increased demand for gold bars and coins in Gulf markets, reflecting a global shift toward gold as a savings and investment vehicle.
Spillover into Egypt
Estimates from the global gold sector, based on seasonal demand data, indicate that major Indian seasons have an indirect impact on Arab markets, including Egypt, through the linkage between local pricing, global price movements, and the US dollar exchange rate.
In the Egyptian market, this impact is reflected in the sensitivity of local prices to changes in global demand, including seasonal trends in major markets such as India, given that pricing depends on international ounce benchmarks.
Rising global prices during such periods also lead to increased local demand for gold bars and coins, as consumers increasingly view gold as a store of value and investment tool rather than a purely consumption good.
2026 Season and Testing Demand Elasticity
Preliminary indicators showed that the 2026 “Akshaya Tritiya” season, which fell on April 19, has not yet witnessed a strong rebound in sales, as prices remain at historically high levels, limiting purchasing power and shifting demand toward alternative investment channels.
The study considers this development a key test of demand elasticity in the Indian market, amid an accelerating shift from physical consumption to financial investment, alongside continued global price pressures.
Structural Shift in Consumer Behavior
The study concluded that ongoing changes in the Indian gold market are no longer driven solely by seasonal factors but reflect a clear transformation in consumer behavior, with consumption demand declining in favor of investment demand. Purchasing decisions have become more closely linked to price movements and market timing rather than traditional occasions.
The Marsad al-Dhahab emphasized that while “Akshaya Tritiya” remains an important annual indicator for measuring demand trends, its role as a strong sales season is gradually declining in favor of a more flexible, investment-driven model in the global gold market.
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