Silver Falls 11.3% Locally and 14.7% Globally Since the Beginning of June

Marsad Al Dahab revealed that silver prices in both the local market and global exchanges have experienced sharp volatility since the beginning of June, driven by a broad sell-off across precious metals markets amid a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period. However, silver managed to recover part of its losses as investment demand for precious metals and safe-haven assets improved.

The Director of Marsad Al Dahab for Economic Studies stated that silver prices in the Egyptian market declined by 11.3% since the beginning of June, with 999 silver losing EGP 15 per gram, falling from EGP 133 at the start of the month to EGP 118 by the end of last week.

He added that local silver prices also fell by 5.6% during the past week, as 999 silver dropped by EGP 7 per gram after opening the week at EGP 125, falling to a low of EGP 114 before closing at EGP 118 per gram.

According to the report, 925 silver traded at approximately EGP 109 per gram, while 800 silver stood at EGP 95 per gram. The silver pound coin was priced at EGP 784.

Globally, silver prices declined by 14.7% since the beginning of June, with the metal opening the month at $79 per ounce before falling to $68 per ounce by the end of the week, losing approximately $11 per ounce.

During the past week alone, silver experienced significant volatility, opening at $68 per ounce, falling to $63, before recovering its losses and closing once again near $68 per ounce.

The report noted that the price gap between local and international silver prices reached approximately EGP 4.30 per gram, representing around 3.8% above the fair value derived from global market prices when calculated using the official exchange rate of approximately EGP 52 per U.S. dollar.

This premium reflects continued local demand for silver despite the recent correction, as well as the cautious pricing approach adopted by traders and manufacturers following the sharp market fluctuations witnessed since the beginning of the year.

The report further highlighted that silver has experienced one of its most volatile periods in 2026. The price of 999 silver opened the year at EGP 125 per gram and surged to nearly EGP 210 during January before retreating to EGP 118 by the end of last week, recording an annual loss of EGP 7, or 5.6%.

On the global market, silver opened the year at $72 per ounce and reached a peak of $121 per ounce in January before declining to $68 per ounce by the end of last week, representing an annual loss of approximately $4, or 5.6%.

According to Marsad Al Dahab, silver has recently been influenced by two opposing forces. The first is monetary pressure stemming from higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, which reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. The second is the long-term structural support resulting from a persistent supply deficit and growing industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy, electric vehicle, power grid, and technology sectors.

The report noted that silver has, at times, demonstrated greater resilience than gold due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from expectations of continued industrial demand despite broader pressure on precious metals.

Data from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus indicate that the global silver market is expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, with the shortfall projected to approach 46 million ounces. This outlook continues to support a positive long-term view despite ongoing price volatility.

Marsad Al Dahab noted that major financial institutions remain divided regarding silver’s future direction.

JPMorgan expects silver to average around $81 per ounce during 2026, supported by continued supply deficits and robust industrial demand.

In contrast, BMO Capital Markets maintains a more conservative outlook, forecasting an average annual price of approximately $56.3 per ounce and around $60 per ounce during the fourth quarter, citing concerns over slowing global economic growth and elevated interest rates.

The report stated that this divergence reflects differing views among institutions regarding the ability of industrial demand to offset the pressures created by global monetary tightening.

Marsad Al Dahab believes that silver remains within historically elevated price ranges despite the recent correction and that the current decline reflects profit-taking and market repricing rather than a deterioration in the metal’s underlying fundamentals.

The observatory also believes that the persistent global supply deficit, coupled with steadily growing industrial demand, will remain among the strongest long-term support factors for silver. However, performance during the second half of the year will largely depend on the path of U.S. interest rates and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

The report emphasized that investors should view silver as a highly volatile asset rather than a direct substitute for gold. While silver tends to deliver stronger gains during bullish cycles, it is also more vulnerable to sharp corrections when liquidity conditions shift or risk appetite increases.

Looking ahead, silver’s outlook for the remainder of 2026 will depend on three key factors: the trajectory of U.S. interest rates, the strength of the dollar, and the pace of global industrial demand. If expectations for monetary tightening ease while supply deficits persist, silver could revisit higher levels. Conversely, continued dollar strength and elevated bond yields may keep the metal under short-term corrective pressure.