A potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could send shock waves through Europe and possibly reach as far west as the United States, but a region further south could find itself an unlikely victim of a potential conflict, according to a CNN report.
According to S&P Global, Ukraine and Russia’s wheat exports account for 23 percent of world exports, and global food prices are currently near their highest levels in 10 years. The two countries’ market share means that any export disruption could cause grain prices to rise.
Russian troops
Ukraine has been dubbed the “breadbasket of Europe”, and Middle Eastern countries have become so dependent on Ukraine to a level that some warn is dangerously high.
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According to the USDA, the Middle East was the third-largest buyer of wheat in Ukraine in the 2020/2021 market year, and over 40 percent of Ukraine’s recent wheat exports went to the Middle East or Africa alone.
Egypt, Lebanon, and Libya are among the largest importers of wheat from Ukraine in the region, with countries such as Yemen and Syria relying on World Food Program purchases of Ukrainian wheat as aid.
Egypt, with a population of over 100 million people, is the largest importer of wheat in the world.
Russia is the main supplier to Egypt, and Ukraine is the second supplier, and the Egyptian authorities have already warned of a shortage of wheat.
In the long term, shortages could aggravate the already dire food security situation in some countries in the region.
According to the 2020 UN report, nearly 69 million people in the Middle East and North Africa are undernourished, representing about 9 percent of the global total.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says hunger in the Middle East has been on the rise since 2014, with livelihoods deteriorating after the Arab Spring uprisings and again after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Therefore, the Middle East, in particular, will be a major victim in the potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and wheat will be the most affected commodity.
Russian Tourists Visiting Sharm El-Sheikh
The tourism sector in Egypt might be affected by the potential conflict, as recent media reports revealed that “bookings from Russia and Ukraine decreased in hotels recently by up to 20 percent.”
According to a Sky News Arabia report, the Head of the Tourism and Aviation Committee in the Egyptian House of Representatives, Nora Ali, stressed that the Egyptian tourism market was affected by the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, noting that “the impact was greater on tourism from Ukraine.”
The real impact will be greater in the future if war actually breaks out, as flights will be suspended.
