OPEC+ Weighs Larger Oil Output Hike after Iran Strikes

OPEC+ may consider a larger-than-expected increase in oil production at its upcoming meeting, following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, according to CNN.

The eight-member ministerial panel, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, is scheduled to convene Sunday to assess market conditions and determine April output levels.

According to the sources, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already increased exports in anticipation of possible supply shocks linked to escalating geopolitical tensions. The precautionary steps come amid fears that any widening conflict could threaten shipments passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil trade, has re-emerged as a focal point for energy markets after the strikes on Iran intensified regional uncertainty.

Brent crude climbed to around $73 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since July, as traders weighed the risk of disruptions against expectations of a looming supply surplus later this year.

Delegates had previously signaled that OPEC+ would likely approve a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for April, aligning with seasonal demand patterns ahead of the summer months. However, the latest developments may prompt a reassessment of that figure.

Any decision to boost output in April would effectively end a three-month pause in production increases, implemented earlier this year due to seasonal demand weakness.

One source cautioned that the scale of any additional increase beyond the previously discussed 137,000 bpd has yet to be formally debated.

Market participants say there is mounting evidence that some Middle Eastern producers have already begun raising shipments. Two trading sources told reporters Friday that Abu Dhabi is preparing to export larger volumes of its flagship Murban crude in April.

The eight OPEC+ members had earlier agreed to raise production quotas by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, equivalent to about 3% of global demand, before suspending further increases from January through March 2026 due to seasonal softness.

The alliance now faces a delicate balancing act: cushioning the market against potential geopolitical shocks while avoiding a renewed supply glut that could pressure prices later in the year.