OPEC+ Weighs Emergency Output Hike Amid Fears of Potential US Strike on Iran

The OPEC+ alliance is considering a modest increase in oil production for April, as geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran raise concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

According to three sources familiar with internal discussions, the group may raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, effectively ending a three-month pause in planned production hikes. The move comes as producers prepare for peak summer demand and seek to preempt possible market shocks stemming from a potential U.S. military strike on Iran.

The proposed increase reflects a delicate balancing act for OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, collectively known as OPEC+. Since 2022, the coalition has pursued a gradual supply management strategy aimed at stabilizing global oil prices through coordinated output cuts.

However, shifting market dynamics, including rising geopolitical risk and growing non-OPEC supply, particularly from the United States, have forced the group to reassess its approach.

Resuming output growth would enable leading producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to regain market share, while other members including Russia and Iran continue to navigate the impact of Western sanctions.

Kazakhstan, another OPEC+ participant, is also recovering from earlier production setbacks, adding another layer of complexity to supply calculations.

Eight core OPEC+ producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman, are scheduled to meet on March 1 to review market conditions and finalize April output levels.

Sources indicate that the production hike remains under consideration rather than finalized, underscoring the group’s cautious posture amid volatile price movements.

In parallel, Saudi Arabia, OPEC+’s largest producer and de facto leader — has reportedly activated a short-term plan to raise output and exports should a U.S. strike on Iran disrupt oil flows from the Gulf region.

Such a disruption could affect shipments through strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global crude exports passes.

The contingency plan highlights Riyadh’s intent to cushion global markets against sharp supply shocks, while maintaining its long-term objective of price stability.

Oil markets have remained sensitive to developments surrounding U.S.–Iran tensions. While traders continue to monitor diplomatic signals, the mere prospect of escalation has injected fresh volatility into crude benchmarks.

For OPEC+, the challenge lies in striking a balance: protecting prices from oversupply while ensuring adequate output to prevent spikes that could accelerate inflation or incentivize rival producers.

With summer demand approaching and geopolitical uncertainty lingering, April’s output decision may prove pivotal in shaping the trajectory of global oil prices in the months ahead.