OPEC Output Falls to Lowest Level since 2000 Amid Iran War Disruptions

Oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell in May 2026 to its lowest level since at least 2000, as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and restrictions on maritime exports reduced supply, according to a Reuters survey.

OPEC members, excluding the United Arab Emirates, which announced its withdrawal from the organization effective May 1, cut production by around 1.06 million barrels per day month-on-month, bringing total output to 16.13 million barrels per day in May.

The level marks the lowest monthly reading in Reuters’ production surveys in more than two decades and is below the production levels recorded during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when global oil demand collapsed and OPEC+ implemented historic output cuts to stabilize markets.

The largest decline came from Iran, reflecting the impact of a US maritime blockade that began on April 13 and pushed Iranian crude oil and condensate exports to their lowest levels in at least six years.

Iran remains one of OPEC’s major producers but has faced years of US sanctions that have limited its ability to sell oil through traditional channels, particularly to Asian markets.

Saudi Arabia also recorded an additional decline in production during May, while Iraq increased supplies due to higher domestic consumption, according to survey data.

Production gains from Venezuela and Nigeria were not enough to offset losses from Iran and reduced Gulf exports caused by shipping disruptions.

The May figures are particularly significant because they came despite an agreement by eight OPEC+ members, including OPEC countries and non-OPEC allies led by Russia — to increase production during the month.

However, the Iran conflict, restrictions on shipping, and disruptions in Gulf maritime routes limited producers’ ability to translate announced production increases into actual barrels reaching global markets.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, carries large volumes of crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf to Asian and European markets.

Any prolonged disruption in the passage raises the risk of supply shortages, increases shipping and insurance costs, and pushes major consumers to seek temporary alternatives or draw from strategic reserves.

The Reuters survey was based on shipping flow data from LSEG, tanker tracking information from companies including Kpler, and input from oil industry sources, OPEC officials, and energy analysts.