OPEC+ Moves Toward Output Increase as War-Driven Supply Shock Jolts Oil Markets

The OPEC+ alliance has reached a preliminary agreement to raise oil production in May 2026, according to informed sources, this move aims to contain global supply disruptions caused by the escalating war between United States, Israel, and Iran.

According to sources cited by Reuters, the group is considering an increase of approximately 206,000 barrels per day next month, extending a cautious production policy adopted earlier this year.

The planned increase follows a similar step agreed for April, when OPEC+ approved a modest output rise after holding production steady during the first quarter amid concerns about oversupply.

However, the outbreak of conflict in late February has dramatically altered market dynamics. What began as a controlled production strategy has shifted into a response to one of the most significant supply disruptions in recent years.

At the center of the الأزمة lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which more than 20% of global oil trade. Ongoing disruptions and effective closures have forced major producers to cut output and reroute shipments.

Key OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates, have seen production declines as a direct consequence of the crises.

Oil prices have surged to near $120 per barrel, marking their highest levels in roughly four years. The rally has been further compounded by disruptions to Russian production following drone attacks, tightening global supply even further.

In response, Gulf producers are increasingly relying on alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia has ramped up shipments via Yanbu port on the Red Sea, reaching around 4.6 million barrels per day, close to the port’s maximum capacity.

Similarly, the United Arab Emirates has boosted exports through Fujairah, a key terminal located outside the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments rose to 1.61 million barrels per day in March, compared to 1.17 million in February, reflecting an attempt to overcome geopolitical constraints.

The current strategy reflects OPEC+’s an attempt to strike a delicate balance between market stability and preventing excessive price increase. The alliance had previously increased output by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, about 3% of global demand, before pausing those increases earlier this year.

While the proposed May increase signals a willingness to act, analysts caution that the scale of the current disruption may limit its effectiveness. With geopolitical tensions unresolved and key transit routes under pressure, global oil markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term.