OPEC Maintains 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4 Million Bpd

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 at approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, according to the group’s latest monthly report released on Wednesday.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in global energy markets, OPEC said it still expects relatively strong demand growth, driven largely by continued economic expansion in emerging economies and sustained energy consumption in developing markets.

In its report, OPEC acknowledged that current geopolitical developments require careful monitoring, particularly as tensions in key energy-producing regions continue to influence market sentiment.

However, the organization indicated that it remains too early to determine whether these developments will significantly affect global economic growth or energy demand projections.

OPEC’s demand outlook remains more optimistic than estimates from other energy institutions, including the International Energy Agency, which has projected more moderate demand growth as the global energy transition accelerates.

The report also revealed that Saudi Arabia significantly increased its oil production in February, partly as a precautionary measure amid rising regional tensions and concerns about potential disruptions to supply routes.

According to figures reported by Saudi Arabia to OPEC, Oil supply to the market reached 10.111 million barrels per day in February, and the total production climbed to 10.882 million barrels per day. This compares with 10.1 million barrels per day in January, reflecting a notable increase in output.

Analysts believe the production boost was intended to stabilize global supply and prepare markets for potential disruptions following heightened tensions involving Iran and Western powers.

OPEC also cited secondary-source data showing that output from the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC members and other major producers such as Russia, averaged 42.72 million barrels per day in February.

This represents an increase of 445,000 barrels per day compared with January, signaling a modest rise in supply as producers respond to market conditions.

The oil market has experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks as traders weigh the potential impact of geopolitical tensions, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and supply disruptions in key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

While OPEC continues to project strong demand growth for 2026, the outlook could evolve depending on global economic conditions, energy policy shifts, and geopolitical developments.

Market participants are now awaiting the next forecast update from the International Energy Agency, scheduled for release on Thursday, which may provide additional insights into the balance between global oil supply and demand in the months ahead.