OPEC Cuts Demand Growth Forecast as Oil Output Slumps More Than 30% Amid Gulf Supply Crisis

OPEC sharply lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth this year after a dramatic decline in production across member states, as escalating regional conflict and disruptions in the Gulf continue to strain global energy markets.

In its latest monthly update released Wednesday, OPEC reported that oil production among member countries fell further in April, extending losses that have intensified since the outbreak of war involving Iran in late February.

According to the report, OPEC reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day, down from an earlier estimate of 1.4 million barrels per day. The organization cited severe constraints on global demand and supply flows resulting from disruptions in the Arabian Gulf, particularly after the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC data showed that member-state production declined by 1.7 million barrels per day in April alone, following a far steeper drop of 7.9 million barrels per day in March. Combined, oil output across OPEC producers has fallen by more than 30% during the conflict period — equivalent to a cumulative reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day.

The report comes amid mounting concerns over global energy security as disruptions continue to ripple through international supply chains and fuel markets.

Separately, the International Energy Agency said cumulative supply losses from Gulf oil producers have now exceeded one billion barrels, following the shutdown of production linked to the closure of key facilities around Hormuz.

According to the agency’s latest assessment, more than 14 million barrels per day of production capacity has been halted, intensifying pressure on already tightening global inventories.

The IEA also warned that worldwide oil stockpiles are declining at a record pace due to sustained supply disruptions. Global inventories reportedly fell by approximately 250 million barrels during March and April, representing an average drawdown of nearly 4 million barrels per day.

The deepening supply crisis has renewed fears of prolonged volatility in global energy prices, with analysts warning that sustained disruptions in Gulf exports could further weaken economic growth prospects and intensify inflationary pressures across both developed and emerging markets.