Oil Set for Further Gains as Middle East Export Risks Escalate

Oil prices are poised to extend their recent gains as global markets open Monday, amid the third week of the U.S.-Israel conflict against Iran, which has put key oil infrastructure at risk and kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, creating the largest disruption to global oil supplies in decades.

Donald Trump threatened additional strikes on oil export facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island, prompting Tehran to vow further retaliatory measures.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts have already surged sharply, rising over 40% since the start of March to reach levels not seen since 2022. The price spike follows U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, which led Tehran to halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil exports.

Latest Oil Prices: 

WTI Crude • 98.71 +2.98 +3.11%

Brent Crude • 103.1 +2.68 +2.67%

Murban Crude • 114.4 -3.32 -2.82%

Natural Gas • 3.131 -0.102 -3.15%

Louisiana Light • 88.30 +1.59 +1.83%

WTI Midland • 100.7 +3.44 +3.54%

Opec Basket • 120.9 +15.80 +15.04%

Mars • 116.2 +5.07 +4.56%

Gasoline • 3.041 +0.077 +2.59%

Crude oil markets extended gains for most grades on Monday as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to rattle global energy markets.

WTI Crude climbed to $98.71 per barrel, up $2.98 or 3.11%, while Brent Crude rose $2.68 to $103.10 per barrel, marking a 2.67% increase. Louisiana Light and WTI Midland also posted solid gains, reaching $88.30 (+1.83%) and $100.70 (+3.54%), respectively.

By contrast, Murban Crude, the UAE benchmark, fell $3.32 or 2.82%, settling at $114.40 per barrel, reflecting regional supply and shipping considerations.

The OPEC Basket surged $15.80 to $120.90 per barrel, a 15.04% jump, signaling strong upward pressure on global crude benchmarks. Other key Middle East grades like Mars also advanced, hitting $116.20 (+4.56%).

In the natural gas market, U.S. futures for natural gas slipped 3.15%, down $0.102 to $3.131 per MMBtu, while gasoline prices rose 2.59%, reaching $3.041 per gallon, reflecting tightening crude supply and growing seasonal demand concerns.

Trump has urged countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to deploy naval forces to secure this vital shipping route.

On Saturday, the United States struck military targets on Kharg Island, followed by a rapid Iranian drone attack on a major oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, described the escalation as a major intensification of the conflict, noting that key oil infrastructure in the region had largely remained unscathed until now.

Critical facilities such as Fujairah port in the UAE, Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia, and the Baqi‘ oil processing plants are vital nodes in Gulf energy networks but remain highly exposed to potential disruptions. Nonetheless, loading operations have resumed at Fujairah port, a source in the energy sector told Reuters on Sunday. Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, exports about 1 million barrels per day of UAE Murban crude, roughly 1% of global oil demand.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil supply could decline by about 8 million barrels per day in March due to shipping disruptions, with Middle Eastern producers cutting output by at least 10 million barrels per day.

Last week, IEA members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to temper rising prices, while Japan plans to begin drawing from its own reserves starting Monday.