Oil Prices Surge Above $100 as Trump Signals Escalation in Iran War

Global oil prices climbed sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled further escalation in the ongoing conflict with Iran, dampening hopes for a near-term resolution and prolonging disruptions to energy flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude rose above $109 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $107, following remarks by Trump in which he portrayed the military campaign as a success and hinted at intensifying operations in the coming weeks.

Market analysts said the Trump’s latest remarks failed to reassure investors. Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corporation, told Bloomberg that the fundamentals of the oil market remain unchanged, noting that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been shut for a month, with severely constrained flows likely to persist for weeks, if not longer.

Rennie projected that Brent crude could trade between $95 and $110 per barrel in the near term, reflecting continued uncertainty and supply disruptions.

Oil prices had declined in recent days amid cautious optimism after Trump suggested that a resolution to the Middle East conflict might be reached within weeks. However, his latest address from the White House introduced fresh ambiguity, while also renewing threats of potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities.

The conflict has effectively halted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies, preventing crude oil, natural gas, and refined products such as diesel from reaching international markets. The disruption has driven up energy prices and fueled concerns over rising global inflation.

Despite recent volatility, Brent crude remains more than 40% higher than pre-war levels, underscoring the sustained impact of the crisis.

Meanwhile, Iran signaled no willingness to reopen the strategic waterway under current conditions. State media, citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the strait would not be reopened in response to what it described as “meaningless proposals” from Washington.

Analysts warn that even if the conflict subsides in the coming weeks, restoring normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could take considerable time due to damage sustained by infrastructure during the war. The continued U.S. military buildup in the region is also keeping markets on edge.

Will Todman, a Middle East analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it is highly unlikely that Iran would agree to a temporary ceasefire if it risks paving the way for future rounds of conflict.

“Iran’s leadership appears to believe time is on its side,” he said, adding that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the pressure on the global economy.