Oil Prices Surge 10% on Iran Conflict

Global oil prices jumped 10% on Sunday as escalating military confrontation involving Iran rattled energy markets, with traders and analysts warning that crude could soon test, or even surpass, the $100-per-barrel mark.

Brent crude climbed roughly 10% in over-the-counter trading to hover near $80 per barrel, according to oil traders, after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets ignited a new flashpoint in the Middle East. Analysts say the rally may only be the beginning if supply disruptions intensify.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude • 67.02 +1.81 +2.78%

Brent Crude • 72.87 +2.03 +2.87%

Murban Crude • 74.24 +2.89 +4.05%

Louisiana Light • 68.78 -0.31 -0.45%

Bonny Light • 78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Opec Basket • 69.29 -0.40 -0.57%

Mars US • 69.53 -0.85 -1.21%

Gasoline • 2.285 +0.032 +1.41%

Natural Gas • 2.859 +0.032 +1.13%

Market participants point to mounting fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily.

Ajay Parmar, head of energy and refining at ICIS, said that while military strikes inherently support higher oil prices, the decisive factor is the potential closure of Hormuz.

“We expect prices to open much closer to $100 per barrel after the weekend, and possibly exceed that level if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period,” Parmar said.

Trading sources indicated that many tanker owners, major oil companies, and commodity trading houses have halted shipments of crude, fuel, and liquefied natural gas through the strait after Tehran warned vessels against transit.

Even with alternative infrastructure available, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s crude pipeline, analysts estimate that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could remove between 8 and 10 million barrels per day from global supply.

Jorge León, energy economist at Rystad Energy, noted that while rerouting can offset part of the disruption, the net supply loss would remain substantial.

Rystad projects that prices could immediately rise by around $20, bringing crude close to $92 per barrel at the start of formal trading sessions.

The surge comes even as the OPEC+ alliance agreed Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day beginning in April, an increment representing less than 0.2% of global demand.

Market analysts argue the planned increase is too modest to counterbalance potential disruptions stemming from geopolitical escalation.

Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC, said Middle Eastern leaders have cautioned Washington that a widening war with Iran could push oil well above $100 per barrel. Analysts at Barclays echoed similar projections.

The Iranian crisis has also prompted Asian governments and refining companies to reassess oil inventories, shipping routes, and contingency supply plans. Several import-dependent economies are reportedly evaluating emergency reserves and alternative procurement strategies.