Oil Prices on Edge as Trump Threats Deepen Iran War Uncertainty

Oil markets faced heightened volatility over the weekend as traders grappled with uncertainty following new, aggressive warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran. 

The threats have left market participants unsure of the trajectory of the ongoing conflict and its impact on global oil supplies.

Brent crude futures for June delivery surged, with Kalshi placing the likelihood of exceeding $113.50 per barrel at 60%, a jump of 21 percentage points over the weekend. Brent closed the previous week at $109, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May contracts ended above $111 and June contracts near $98 per barrel.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude $114.3 +2.74 +2.46%

Brent Crude $111.4 +2.37 +2.17%

Murban Crude $114.8 +11.21 +10.82%

WTI Midland  $119.3 +13.27 +12.51%

Opec Basket $110.6 -12.58 -10.21%

Indian Basket $120.8 -4.01 -3.21%

Natural Gas $2.838 +0.038 +1.36%

Gasoline $3.343 +0.055 +1.66%

Heating Oil $4.526 +0.165 +3.78%

Weekend trading via IG Group also showed gains for U.S. oil, reaching just under $108 per barrel compared to $105 on Thursday, highlighting speculative activity through spreads and CFDs.

A striking divergence emerged between spot and futures prices. Physical Brent, representing actual North Sea shipments, exceeded $140 per barrel last week—the highest since 2008—underscoring severe pressure on current supplies relative to future expectations.

On Saturday, Trump issued a stark warning, stating that “hell will rain” on Iran unless Tehran reaches an agreement and reopens the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. On Sunday, he escalated his rhetoric via social media, threatening strikes on Iranian energy facilities and bridges, and declaring that “mad villains” would “live in hell” if the strait remained closed to maritime traffic by Tuesday.

Forecast markets have shown mixed reactions. Kalshi data indicated that the probability of normal navigation resuming in the Strait of Hormuz by May 15 remained around 14%, unchanged following Trump’s warnings, while the likelihood of reopening by June 1 rose to 30%, a 7-point increase.

Polymarket displayed divergent reactions: the chance of the conflict ending by May 15 increased to 28% from 25%, whereas the probability of a resolution by June 30 fell to 55% from 60%.