Brent crude could climb to around $80 a barrel if a significant supply disruption materializes, Barclays said, as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to simmer.
In a research note, the British lender said that while it remains possible the latest escalation may not lead to any supply interruption, allowing the current $3–$5 per barrel geopolitical risk premium to fade, a disruption of 1 million barrels per day would materially tighten the market.
“An outage of that scale would amplify uncertainty surrounding the widely expected supply surplus and could push Brent toward $80 per barrel,” the bank said.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday as traders positioned for potential disruptions. Brent settled at $72.48 per barrel, reflecting mounting concern that stalled nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran could further destabilize the region.
Latest Oil Prices:
WTI Crude • 67.02 +1.81 +2.78%
Brent Crude • 72.87 +2.03 +2.87%
Murban Crude • 74.24 +2.89 +4.05%
Louisiana Light • 68.78 -0.31 -0.45%
Bonny Light • 78.62 -2.30 -2.84%
Opec Basket • 69.29 -0.40 -0.57%
Mars US • 69.53 -0.85 -1.21%
Gasoline • 2.285 +0.032 +1.41%
Natural Gas • 2.859 +0.032 +1.13%
Although no direct supply losses have been reported, markets remain sensitive to developments given the strategic importance of Middle Eastern export routes.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday voiced frustration over ongoing nuclear talks with Iran, warning that “sometimes you have to use force,” amid a heightened American military presence in the region.
Barclays cautioned against dismissing geopolitical risks altogether, but noted that historical precedent suggests risk premiums tied to such events often dissipate if no physical supply disruption follows.
“Our rejection of the view that geopolitical tensions pose asymmetric upside risks to oil prices is largely based on recent history, which supports the rapid fading of risk premiums once immediate threats subside,” the bank said.
Follow the latest news on Google News
