Oil Could Hit $120 if Middle East Tension Persists, Barclays Says

The global benchmark Brent crude oil could rise to $120 per barrel if the Middle East conflict continues for several more weeks, according to a forecast released Friday by Barclays.

The bank said the price projection may appear high amid prevailing market pessimism at the beginning of the year, but stressed that underlying market fundamentals remain strong and geopolitical risks are greater than during the Russia–Ukraine War, when similar price levels were previously recorded.

Oil prices have surged as the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict expands across the Middle East, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy supplies.

The strait transports nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and maritime traffic has been disrupted after Iran threatened to target vessels passing through the waterway.

Brent crude traded near $93.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil stood at $91.62 per barrel.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude • 91.00 +9.99 +12.33%

Brent Crude • 92.80 +7.39 +8.65%

Murban Crude • 102.2 +7.68 +8.13%

Louisiana Light • 84.88 +6.30 +8.02%

Bonny Light • 78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Opec Basket • 90.10 +7.23 +8.72%

Mars US • 69.53 -0.85 -1.21%

Gasoline • 2.762 +0.091 +3.42%

Natural Gas • 3.168 +0.165 +5.49%

Barclays also reported that the volume of oil trapped on tankers in the Gulf of Mexico increased by about 85 million barrels since the start of the conflict, warning that upward price risks remain dominant.

U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his call for Iran to accept “unconditional surrender,” a move that could further complicate diplomatic efforts to quickly end the hostilities.

The bank added that production shutdowns have already begun in Iraq and Kuwait, with potential extensions to United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over time.