Mehdi Oghbaei: Fall of Iran’s Clerical Regime Is Now Inevitable

Mehdi Oghbaei, a member of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said that Iran and the broader Middle East are passing through a decisive historical turning point, marked by the collapse of the ruling clerical establishment’s strategies and an unprecedented surge in popular anger that has pushed the regime into what he described as an “existential dead end.”

In a statement issued today, Oghbaei said that the January uprising and the regime’s violent response had exposed the impossibility of the long-term survival of the Velayat-e Faqih system. He argued that the mass killings ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei demonstrated not strength, but fear and political bankruptcy.

“The political earthquake created by the January uprising, combined with the comprehensive massacres carried out by the regime, has proven that the permanent survival of the Velayat-e Faqih system is no longer possible,” Oghbaei said. “This uprising answered three fundamental questions about Iran’s future: the inevitability of change, the mechanisms to achieve it on the ground, and the guarantees for preventing chaos after the regime’s fall.”

Oghbaei highlighted the unprecedented level of organization that characterized the January protests, noting that from their earliest moments they carried explicit political slogans calling for the overthrow of the religious dictatorship. He stressed that the decisive factor was the leadership role played by revolutionary youth across the country.

“What distinguished this uprising was the central role of revolutionary youth, who went beyond protest,” he said. “They directly confronted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), succeeded in disarming regime forces in several clashes, and broke the myth of the regime’s security dominance. In a number of cities, neighborhoods were liberated and held for extended periods of time.”

According to Oghbaei, these developments were neither spontaneous nor temporary. He recalled that Massoud Rajavi, leader of the Iranian Resistance, had warned in December 2025 that the people’s front was “one step away” from revolutionary victory.

“The regime’s resort to systematic mass killing, firing at protesters’ heads, finishing off the wounded, and killing children is a clear sign of impotence,” Oghbaei said. “This brutality has even forced currents once labeled ‘reformist’ to admit that change from within the regime is no longer possible.”

He added that current attempts to revive monarchist narratives and promote the former Shah’s son through coordinated online campaigns are aimed at diverting the uprising and reproducing dictatorship in a different form. “These efforts have no real organizational base among the revolutionary youth inside Iran,” he said.

Turning to the question of political alternatives, Oghbaei emphasized that the Iranian Resistance has a concrete and viable plan to prevent chaos during a transition period.

“The NCRI is not starting from zero,” he said. “The democratic alternative has an extensive nationwide network and a clear roadmap for the day after. It begins with a six-month provisional government tasked with organizing free elections for a Constituent Assembly that will lay the foundations of a democratic republic.”

Oghbaei concluded by referencing a recent conference in Berlin, where Maryam Rajavi, the NCRI’s President-elect, highlighted the role of international figures who rejected appeasement of dictatorship and supported Iran’s revolutionary youth.