Marisks Warns Oil Tankers Face 'Worst-Case Scenario' in Strait of Hormuz as Iranian Attacks Escalate

Oil tanker operators are confronting a return to the "worst-case scenario" in the Strait of Hormuz after a series of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels over the past week sharply deteriorated security conditions in one of the world's most critical energy shipping lanes, according to maritime risk consultancy Marisks.

Speaking during a Lloyd's List Intelligence briefing, Dimitris Maniatis, Chief Executive of Athens-based Marisks, said shipping activity through the strategic waterway has declined significantly as crews grow increasingly reluctant to transit the area.

"We are seeing a reduction in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and crews are far more concerned than before," Maniatis said. "No one is willing to move."

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), at least nine commercial vessels have been attacked since July 6 in what officials describe as Iranian efforts to force ships to transit through Iranian territorial waters instead of the internationally recognized route along Oman's coastline.

The IMO reported that one seafarer was killed and three others injured after the crude oil tanker Al Bahiyah came under attack off the coast of Oman earlier this week. On the same day, 11 crew members were injured in a separate attack targeting the crude tanker Mombasa B near Omani waters.

Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety and Security Officer at shipping association BIMCO, said the attacks involved anti-ship missiles.

Maniatis warned that deteriorating security conditions are taking a heavy psychological toll on seafarers.

"It is no longer about financial incentives or a greater purpose," he said. "Fear is now driving decision-making."

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's assertion that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all vessels except Iranian ships following Washington's renewed naval blockade, vessel-tracking data indicate a steep decline in maritime traffic.

According to analysts at Lloyd's List Intelligence, only a limited number of ships, many operating with their tracking transponders switched off, have continued transiting the strait.

Trade intelligence firm Kpler reported that vessel traffic fell to eight ships on Thursday, down from 15 the previous day. Before the outbreak of the latest U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran on February 28, more than 100 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day.

Larsen cautioned that the traditional traffic separation scheme running through the center of the strait remains highly dangerous because of the risk posed by naval mines.

"If a mine detonates, it usually explodes beneath the vessel," he said. "Mines are devastating weapons, making any transit through a mined area an extremely serious risk."

The latest escalation comes amid ongoing disagreements between Washington and Tehran over implementing a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran pledged to facilitate safe passage for commercial shipping, the agreement did not specify which navigation routes vessels should use.

Larsen said shipping companies require credible security assurances from both the United States and Iran before confidence in the route can be restored.

Absent such guarantees, he said, Washington is likely to continue targeting Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and naval assets to suppress threats to commercial shipping.

Whether maritime traffic recovers will largely depend on whether shipowners and crews believe the security risks have materially diminished. Larsen noted that while some operators remain willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz, others have suspended sailings altogether.

"The decision is not made solely by the shipowner sitting in an office," he said. "It also requires the crew's consent."