Marsad Gold reported that gold prices surged in both the Egyptian market and global bullion markets during Thursday's midday trading, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after U.S. employment data came in below market expectations. The disappointing labor market figures prompted investors to scale back expectations for further U.S. interest rate hikes, although restrictive monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to keep markets cautious.
According to Marsad Gold, the price of 21-karat gold—the benchmark in the Egyptian market—rose by approximately EGP 130 during Thursday's trading to around EGP 5,830 per gram, compared with Wednesday's closing level. Meanwhile, spot gold climbed by about $106 to approximately $4,123 per ounce at the time of writing.
The report added that 24-karat gold reached around EGP 6,663 per gram, while 18-karat gold traded at approximately EGP 4,997 per gram. The gold sovereign also increased to around EGP 46,640.
Marsad Gold explained that the rally followed the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed that the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below market expectations of 110,000. In addition, May's payroll figure was revised downward to 126,000 from the previously reported 172,000, signaling a noticeable slowdown in the pace of U.S. labor market growth.
The report noted that the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, broadly matching market expectations.
According to Marsad Gold, the weaker-than-expected employment data prompted investors to reassess the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September meeting fell to around 51%, down from nearly 63% before the data release. This shift weighed on the U.S. dollar, which dropped to its lowest level in two weeks, while gold climbed to its highest level in more than a week.
The report added that the U.S. dollar also faced additional pressure amid reports that Japanese authorities could intervene to support the yen after it weakened to its lowest level in four decades, providing further support for gold prices.
Marsad Gold stressed that the latest rally does not necessarily mark the end of the challenges facing gold. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, with Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirming the central bank's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, emphasizing that easing inflationary pressures does not justify abandoning price stability.
The report also pointed to comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly, who warned that inflation could prove more persistent than expected, adding that it remains too early to make a definitive decision on future interest rates. Her remarks highlighted the continued division among Federal Reserve officials over the timing of any additional policy tightening.
Marsad Gold noted that global inflationary pressures have eased considerably in recent weeks as crude oil prices declined sharply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to around $67 per barrel, its lowest level since February, compared with a peak of $113 during the U.S.-Iran conflict.
The report explained that oil prices declined after the United States and Iran signed a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) last month that partially reopened navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the latest round of indirect talks between Washington and Tehran concluded in Doha with encouraging signs, although no final agreement was reached, helping ease supply concerns and reduce global inflation expectations.
Marsad Gold added that gold ended the first half of 2026 with one of its sharpest corrections in recent years. Egypt's 21-karat gold price fell by approximately EGP 145 compared with the beginning of the year, despite reaching a record high of EGP 7,600 per gram before retreating to EGP 5,600, a decline of nearly EGP 1,915 from its historic peak.
Globally, gold declined by approximately $301 during the first half of the year, falling from a record high near $5,626 per ounce to $4,017 at the end of June, reflecting a broad repricing driven by changing expectations for U.S. monetary policy, rising real yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar.
June alone witnessed the sharpest correction, with local gold prices losing around EGP 1,080, or approximately 16%, while global gold prices dropped by about $523, or more than 11%. The decline coincided with the narrowing of Egypt's domestic premium and an improvement in the Egyptian pound, allowing a larger portion of the global decline to be transmitted to the local market.
According to Marsad Gold, current market movements signal the beginning of a new phase in which geopolitical developments are gradually becoming less influential, while U.S. economic fundamentals—particularly employment, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy—are increasingly driving gold prices. As a result, markets have become more sensitive to incoming economic data.
The report added that this outlook is consistent with the latest World Gold Council assessment, which concludes that the gold market has shifted from the record-breaking rally seen earlier this year to a broad repricing phase, making prices increasingly dependent on economic fundamentals such as interest rates, the U.S. dollar, economic growth, and inflation.
The World Gold Council expects gold to trade within a relatively narrow range during the second half of 2026, with its base-case scenario suggesting price movements of no more than approximately 5% higher or lower unless major economic or geopolitical developments trigger another market repricing.
The report also noted that continued central bank purchases, together with resilient physical demand from Asian markets—particularly China and India—have become key structural pillars supporting gold prices and limiting the likelihood of another sharp downturn, even in an environment of elevated U.S. yields and a relatively strong dollar.
Marsad Gold concluded that gold prices in the coming months will continue to be driven primarily by U.S. economic data, especially inflation figures, labor market indicators, and Federal Reserve meetings. Despite ongoing market volatility, gold remains a long-term investment rather than a short-term speculative asset, particularly amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the global economy.
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