Despite the passage of 77 years since the ominous Black Day in Kashmir on October 27, 1947, the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) remain haunted by recurring oppression and suffering. On this fateful day, Indian Armed Forces forcibly occupied Jammu and Kashmir, coercing Maharaja Hari Singh into illegally signing the "Instrument of Accession." This act was carried out despite his prior standstill agreement with Pakistan on August 15, 1947.
This so-called accession violated the 1947 Indian Independence Act, which mandated that rulers of princely states decide their accession based on the wishes of their people. Moreover, Maharaja Hari Singh had lost his authority due to a popular uprising against his rule. Fully aware of the illegality of India’s occupation, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru made pledges to the people of Jammu and Kashmir, to Pakistan, to the Indian Parliament, and to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that the future of the state would be determined by its people. He committed to holding a plebiscite, allowing Kashmiris to choose whether to join Pakistan or India.
The UNSC, through multiple resolutions, also resolved that "the final disposition of Jammu and Kashmir will be decided in accordance with the will of the people through a democratic, free, and impartial plebiscite."
However, India has consistently delayed holding this plebiscite, resorting to various subterfuges to portray local legislative assembly and Lok Sabha elections as expressions of the will of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
Year after year, events in Jammu and Kashmir have been marked by betrayal, deceit, and the denial of basic human rights, particularly the right to self-determination. The most recent legislative assembly elections, held from September 18 to October 1, 2024, in what India now calls the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir, offered little comfort to the beleaguered Kashmiris. They remain oppressed, manipulated, and deceived by the same forces that have kept them under occupation for decades.
On August 5, 2019, the Modi government abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, stripping IIOJK of its autonomy and removing restrictions on demographic changes in the occupied territory. The other major changes included downgrading Jammu and Kashmir from statehood and splitting it into two UTs—Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. While a legislative assembly was envisaged for Jammu and Kashmir at a convenient stage, the same was denied to Ladakh. The Muslim population of Ladakh, which forms the majority in Kargil and constitutes over 20% in Leh, was thus separated from Jammu and Kashmir.
The Indian Supreme Court, meanwhile, delayed hearing petitions challenging these illegal actions for over four years, only to uphold the changes made without the consent of Jammu and Kashmir's legislative assembly or its people. This decision set a dangerous precedent, one that could potentially affect the constituent Indian states. Cosmetic provisions in the court’s ruling called for the legislative assembly elections to be held in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024, and for the restoration of statehood at a time deemed appropriate by the central government.
The Modi regime carefully orchestrated the 2024 elections to confuse voters and create the appearance of endorsing its illegal actions from 2019. The government’s first preference was to install a BJP-led coalition in Jammu and Kashmir, for which electoral constituencies were gerrymandered. In July 2024, the Union Government amended the rules, granting Lieutenant Governor (LG) extensive control over critical areas such as police, administration and legal affairs. Additionally, the LG has been given the authority to nominate five members to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly at his discretion.
The number of seats in the Jammu region was increased by six, while only one additional seat was allocated to the Kashmir Valley, bringing the total number of seats in the legislative assembly to 90. The redistricting further consolidated the Hindu vote while diluting the Muslim vote.
This echoes the Maharaja’s and RSS’s obsession with changing Jammu’s Muslim demographic since 1947, when Muslim massacres were carried out in Jammu after the announcement of partition. According to a report by The Times of London published on August 10, 1948, "237,000 Muslims were systematically exterminated" during these massacres. Another article by Alexander Horace in The Spectator put the number at 200,000.
Notably, Engineer Rashid, who had won a Lok Sabha seat while imprisoned in Tihar Jail in June 2024, was released in September to organize his Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) for the elections. Some former Jamaat-e-Islami members and other Hurriyat Conference cadres also ran independently or on tickets from Jammu and Kashmir’s toady parties. However, their efforts to divide the Muslim vote in favor of BJP and its allies, the Apni Party and J&K People’s Conference (PC), failed. The National
Conference (NC), Indian National Congress (INC), and Communist Party of India (CPI) alliance won 49 of the 90 seats with their individual party tallies of 42, 6, and 1, respectively. BJP secured 29 seats in Jammu but failed to win any seats in the Kashmir Valley.
The election results reaffirm the Kashmiri viewpoint that their resistance to Indian occupation and their aspirations for independence remain separate from the local electoral process, which serves only to meet interim governance needs. Engineer Rashid, despite defeating major political figures in the Lok Sabha elections, barely managed to secure a single legislative assembly seat for his brother. Likewise, the former Jamaat-e-Islami and Hurriyat candidates, failed to secure a single seat; even losing in their strongholds of Sopore, Bandipora, and Baramulla in North Kashmir, as well as Shopian and Kulgam in the South.
Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was heavily penalized by the electorate for its political adventurism of a coalition with the BJP in 2014, whose downfall provided an opportunity to Modi to take the illegal actions in occupied J&K. PDP merely managed to secure three seats, down from 28 in 2014.
Meanwhile, the National Conference (NC), led by the Abdullahs, has already begun backtracking on its electoral promises of restoring Articles 370 and 35A, abolishing draconian laws such as AFSPA, UAPA, and PSA, facilitating dialogue between Pakistan and India and promoting trade across the Line of Control (LoC). During his first statement as the new Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah focused solely on restoring statehood, with no mention of the constitutional provisions he had earlier vowed to restore. When confronted, he deflected by stating that Articles 370 and 35A cannot be restored as long as Modi’s BJP government remains in power at the centre. It is clear that it would be unrealistic to expect from the Abdullahs to actively push for the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A while running the government of occupied J&K.
The Kashmiris, however, are already scrutinizing Omar Abdullah and the National Conference for failing to deliver on their key campaign promises regarding the restoration of political and human rights. Many regard this as a betrayal, tantamount to endorsing Modi's illegal actions from five years ago.
Ironically, Hindutva supporters in Jammu are also beginning to feel the consequences of the demographic changes unleashed by the Modi regime. Over 5 million J&K domicile certificates have been issued to non-Kashmiris, primarily
from states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. These settlers are now taking away jobs and entitlements once reserved for the local population.
It is evident that Omar Abdullah intends to operate within the constraints imposed by the Union Government and is unlikely to cross any redlines that might anger Modi. While playing it safe, he will likely focus on delivering electoral promises of free handouts rather than addressing the core political issues. The draconian laws of IIOJK, once utilized to their advantage by Omar and Mehbooba in their past governments, will remain in force. Progress on this front is unlikely, but the resolve of the Kashmiri people remains undeterred. They continue to separate their ultimate goal of freedom from Indian occupation from the immediate need for governance to address their local concerns.
The 2024 elections may have created an illusion of political participation, but they cannot erase the deep-seated aspiration of the Kashmiri people for freedom and justice. The abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, along with the ongoing demographic and constitutional changes, have only strengthened Kashmiris' resolve for self-determination. Despite betrayal from their own political ranks, the Kashmiri people remain resilient in their pursuit of justice. Until the long-promised plebiscite is held, no electoral process in Jammu and Kashmir can be seen as legitimate. The world must not turn a blind eye to the continuing plight of the Kashmiri people.
(The writer has remained Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan in New Delhi.)
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