Iran’s Oil Exports Plunge to 6-Year Low as Maritime Blockade Squeezes Crude Flows

Iran’s oil exports collapsed to their lowest level in at least six years as an ongoing U.S.-led maritime pressure campaign sharply curtails crude shipments, leaving tens of millions of barrels stranded and raising concerns over tightening global supplies.

Shipping data compiled by Vortexa shows Iran exported just 209,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensate in May, a dramatic decline from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March. Separate estimates from analytics firm Kpler placed May exports slightly higher at 260,000 bpd, but still at levels not seen since the height of Washington’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Tehran in 2019 and 2020.

The sharp downturn underscores the growing effectiveness of restrictions targeting Iranian energy exports, which have significantly reduced the country’s ability to move crude to international buyers despite efforts to rely on offshore storage and alternative shipping networks.

When the maritime restrictions intensified in April, market observers expected Tehran to temporarily absorb the shock by placing unsold crude into floating storage while awaiting opportunities to resume shipments. That buffer is now rapidly shrinking.

According to Kpler data, Iran’s floating oil inventories have fallen from approximately 190 million barrels in late April to around 147 million barrels, reflecting a combination of reduced production and limited cargo movements to China.

The decline suggests that Tehran is increasingly running out of options to sustain exports while maintaining production levels.

Compounding Iran’s challenges is a slowdown in Chinese demand, historically the primary destination for Iranian crude.

Chinese imports of Iranian oil fell to approximately 1.1 million bpd in May, the lowest level since January 2025, according to market estimates. Independent refiners, often referred to as “teapots,” have reduced processing rates amid weaker profit margins and comfortable domestic fuel inventories.

The weakening demand has already begun affecting pricing dynamics. Iranian Light crude, which recently traded at premiums to Brent, has slipped into discount territory for the first time in two months as sellers compete for a smaller pool of buyers.

Despite continued shipments, substantial volumes of Iranian crude remain unable to reach end markets.

Kpler estimates that approximately 67 million barrels of crude oil and condensate are currently stranded within the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, highlighting the scale of the logistical bottleneck facing Iranian exporters.

Analysts warn that the situation could become significantly more severe if current restrictions remain in place.

Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Crude Oil Analysis at Kpler, said Iran could effectively exhaust the volumes available for shipment to China within the next two months if export constraints persist and demand remains subdued.

The consequences extend beyond Iran’s energy sector.

Every barrel removed from international markets contributes to tighter global supplies at a time when geopolitical disruptions across the Middle East have already reduced regional export flows.

Energy traders are increasingly monitoring whether prolonged constraints on Iranian exports could amplify upward pressure on oil prices, particularly if other regional producers face additional supply interruptions.

Meantime, the impact is visible in fewer tankers departing Iranian ports. Over time, however, analysts say the export collapse may evolve into a production crisis as storage capacity diminishes and access to buyers becomes increasingly limited.