A rapid scale-up of Covid-19 vaccine availability from next month should ensure the current crunch, particularly for the 18-44 age group, will ease by July, following which it will be possible to inoculate India’s entire adult population of around 95 crores by this December, government sources say.
“We have all expectations and are fully confident of being able to achieve the goal of vaccinating the above 18 population by year-end,” said a senior official.
The shots can be delivered to those willing to be vaccinated as there will be no shortfall in the number of vaccines, sourced mainly from Indian manufacturers.
Providing a break-up of anticipated vaccine availability, the official said the number of would-be 8.5 crores in May, 10 crores in June, 15 crores in July, 36 crores in August, 50 crores in September, 56 crores in October, 59 crores in November, and 65 crores in December. The estimates are “dynamic”, but on the conservative side.
Explaining the availability of Russian-made Sputnik, sources said around 60 lakh doses are expected to be delivered in May, followed by 1 crore in June, 2.5 crores in July, and 1.6 crores in August. The makers have an arrangement with Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories which has tie-ups with other firms as well, and the vaccine numbers will further increase post-August, exceeding 7 crores a month in November and December.
As regards the availability of vaccines in May, around 40% of doses have been delivered and the rest will follow, though there might be some spillover to June.
The estimated availability of Serum Institute of India's Covishield is expected to be 6.5 crores in June, 7 crores in July, 10 crores in August, and 11.5 crores in September, October, November, and December. Covaxin availability is likely to be 2.5 crores in June, 7.5 crores in July and August,7.7 crores in September, 10.2 crores in October and November, and 13.5 crores in December.
The government’s estimates do not take into account the start dates of vaccine production sub-contracted by firms such as Dr. Reddy’s, which is making Sputnik, for example, until November. Companies such as Stelis, Shilpa, and Gland Pharma fall in this category, the official said, emphasizing that the vaccine estimates were carefully arrived at. Around 1.6 crores of Sputnik doses are to be in use in August, rising to more than 7 crores in December.
The Biological E candidate, which used recombinant protein methodology, is in stage three trials and doing well. In fact, with two vaccines in use, the government is confident that candidates that do well in phase one trials are more likely than not to be developed successfully. It is anticipated that Novovax is likely to get approvals abroad soon and will then become eligible for use in India while simultaneously carrying out bridging trials.
Genova's mRNA and Bharat Biotech’s internasal vaccines are in phase I trials and doing well and are expected to be in use by September. Pre-clinical stage vaccines of Bharat Biotech (Rabies vector), Seagull (Virosome), and Intas (Adeno-associated virus) are not part of the Centre's calculations as yet.
Results of SII’s repurposed BCG NSE -0.59 % vaccine are awaited and, if successful, can offer some protection. “We believe the target of getting the vaccine to those eligible, or the 18-plus group, is very much within grasp,” the official said.
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