IMF, World Bank: Middle East War Drains Oil Reserves, Drives Fertilizer Prices Higher

The heads of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group, and the World Trade Organization (WTO) issued a joint warning Friday that the ongoing war in the Middle East is exerting “severe and uneven consequences” on global energy supplies, food security, and economic stability across multiple regions.

The statement followed a meeting of the High-Level Coordination Group established in April to strengthen international responses to the economic, trade, and energy-related fallout stemming from the conflict.

Leaders of the four institutions said that although the global economy has so far demonstrated resilience, the repercussions of the war are hitting the world’s most vulnerable economies particularly hard through rising fuel and fertilizer prices, mounting uncertainty, and increasing pressure on jobs and household incomes.

Officials highlighted the sharp rise in fertilizer costs as a major source of concern, especially as many countries prepare to enter critical agricultural planting seasons that could directly affect future food production and inflation levels.

The joint statement also warned of a rapid and unprecedented decline in global petroleum reserves, driven largely by disruptions to oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime energy corridors.

According to the institutions, failure to fully restore maritime navigation in the region could accelerate the depletion of fuel inventories ahead of peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, intensifying threats to global energy security, market stability, and the broader recovery of the world economy.

The officials explained that the meeting focused on assessing the scale of the economic damage, evaluating conditions in the countries and regions most heavily affected, and coordinating relief and financial support efforts for vulnerable economies.

They also revealed that discussions included several options aimed at expanding joint assistance mechanisms through both bilateral and multilateral initiatives designed to mitigate the economic consequences of the conflict.

The organizations stressed the importance of closely monitoring fertilizer supply chains, developments in global energy markets, and broader macroeconomic conditions as the crisis evolves.

In addition, the institutions confirmed they are tracking and analyzing government policies introduced in response to the conflict in order to improve transparency, share policy lessons, and strengthen early warning systems against emerging economic risks.