Gold Rises 1.8% in Egypt and 2.2% Globally on Weak U.S. Jobs Data and Continued Central Bank Demand

Marsad Al Dahab reported that gold prices in Egypt's local market rose by 1.8% over the past week, while spot gold gained 2.2% on international markets, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data and easing expectations for further monetary tightening. The outlook for the precious metal also continues to be reinforced by strong central bank purchases and positive forecasts from major financial institutions.

According to Marsad Al Dahab, local gold prices increased by EGP 105 during the week. The price of 21-karat gold opened trading at EGP 5,780 per gram, declined to EGP 5,630, then rebounded to EGP 5,920 before closing the week at EGP 5,885.

Spot gold rose by $88 during the week. The metal opened at $4,088 per ounce, fell to an intraweek low of $3,973, climbed to a high of $4,185, and finished the week at $4,176 per ounce.

Meanwhile, 24-karat gold traded at EGP 6,726 per gram, 18-karat gold reached EGP 5,044 per gram, and the gold sovereign stood at EGP 47,080.

Marsad Al Dahab said gold experienced significant volatility during the week. Prices initially came under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking before reversing course after U.S. employment data showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the labor market. The figures strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period, improving the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

The report added that declining expectations for further monetary tightening encouraged investors to rebuild positions in gold, while lower U.S. Treasury yields further enhanced the metal's attractiveness, allowing prices to recover from weekly lows and finish with solid gains.

According to the latest data from the World Gold Council, central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to their reserves in May 2026. Poland led purchases with 18 tonnes, followed by China with 10 tonnes, while Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Singapore also reported additional acquisitions, underscoring the continued strategic shift toward gold as a reserve asset.

Marsad Al Dahab also highlighted the World Gold Council's latest Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, which found that 45% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since the survey began—while 89% anticipate continued growth in global official gold reserves, reinforcing institutional demand as one of the strongest long-term drivers of the market.

The report further noted that the World Gold Council's Mid-Year Outlook 2026 projects a base-case scenario in which gold prices fluctuate within a range of approximately ±5% from current levels during the second half of the year if economic conditions evolve in line with market expectations. Under a more supportive macroeconomic environment, prices could rise by between 5% and 20%, while a stronger U.S. dollar and higher real interest rates could push prices down by between 5% and 15%.

Marsad Al Dahab said this outlook broadly aligns with forecasts from major global financial institutions, which continue to view gold's long-term trend as constructive, supported by official-sector demand, reserve diversification, and sustained investment inflows despite short-term volatility.

Marsad Al Dahab's Review of the First Half of 2026

An analysis conducted by Marsad Al Dahab shows that Egypt's gold market went through two distinct phases during the first half of 2026. The first quarter witnessed a powerful rally that pushed prices to record highs, while the second quarter was characterized by a sharp correction that erased a significant portion of those gains.

According to Marsad Al Dahab's data, 21-karat gold opened the year at EGP 5,830 per gram on January 1 before climbing to EGP 6,825 on February 1, marking the largest monthly increase of the year at EGP 995, or 17.1%. Prices continued to rise to EGP 7,525 on March 1, gaining another EGP 700, or 10.3%, over the month.

With the beginning of the second quarter, however, the market entered a correction phase. Prices fell to EGP 7,290 on April 1, declined further to EGP 6,955 on May 1, then to EGP 6,765 on June 1, before reaching EGP 5,685 on July 1. This represented the largest monthly decline of 2026 so far, with prices falling by EGP 1,080, or nearly 16%.

The data show that the first quarter ended with 21-karat gold at EGP 7,290 per gram, representing a cumulative gain of EGP 1,460, or approximately 25%, compared with the start of the year, driven by record global gold prices and heightened safe-haven demand.

By contrast, the second quarter marked a clear reversal in market direction. Gold lost EGP 1,605 per gram, falling from EGP 7,290 to EGP 5,685, a decline of around 22%, reflecting profit-taking, weaker international prices, and a narrowing domestic premium.

Despite the sharp correction, gold remains higher than at the beginning of the year. The price of 21-karat gold has risen by EGP 855, or 14.7%, since January 1, demonstrating that the precious metal has retained a significant portion of its annual gains despite heightened volatility in both domestic and international markets.

Marsad Al Dahab concluded that the first-half performance indicates the market has shifted from a rally driven by geopolitical risks and investment demand to a healthy correction that restored prices to more balanced levels without undermining the long-term bullish trend. Gold's ability to remain in positive territory year-to-date, despite the second-quarter correction, reinforces its role as a long-term store of value and hedge against uncertainty, particularly as central banks continue to accumulate gold and international institutions maintain a positive outlook for official-sector demand.