Marsad Al Dahab reported that local gold prices declined by 4% during the past week, while international gold prices fell by 1.5%, as the market continued to face pressure from the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The Director of Marsad Al Dahab for Economic Studies stated that local gold prices fell by approximately EGP 260 during the week. The price of 21-karat gold opened trading at EGP 6,280 per gram, climbed to a weekly high of EGP 6,330, then dropped to EGP 5,970 before closing the week at EGP 6,020.
He added that the international gold price declined by US$64, or 1.5%, during the week. Gold opened at US$4,219 per ounce, rose to a weekly high of US$4,382, and eventually closed at US$4,155 per ounce.
Meanwhile, 24-karat gold reached EGP 6,880 per gram, 18-karat gold stood at EGP 5,160, while the gold pound coin recorded EGP 48,160.
The report noted that local gold prices have lost approximately EGP 745 since the beginning of June, representing an 11% decline, after opening the month at EGP 6,765 per gram for 21-karat gold. Consequently, gold's gains since the start of 2026 have narrowed to just EGP 190, or 3.3%, compared with the year's opening price of EGP 5,830 per gram.
The Director explained that the Egyptian market has begun to absorb a larger share of the global price decline, as the local premium dropped from EGP 332 above the fair value at the beginning of the week to EGP 203 by the end of the week—a decline of EGP 129, or 39%.
He explained that the local premium—the difference between the actual domestic gold price and its fair value based on international prices and the exchange rate—is one of the most important indicators reflecting local market conditions, investor demand, hedging activity, and supply availability.
He added that the shrinking premium indicates that a greater portion of the global price decline is now being transmitted to the Egyptian market, supported by the appreciation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar. Nevertheless, the continued premium of EGP 203 confirms that the market is still maintaining a degree of hedging, supported by sustained demand for gold bars and bullion coins.
The report also recalled that local prices reached their peak on 2 March, when 21-karat gold climbed to approximately EGP 7,600 per gram, marking gains of EGP 1,770 since the beginning of the year before surrendering most of those gains over recent weeks.
Globally, gold has lost around US$385 since the beginning of June, equivalent to 8.5% of its value, after opening the month at US$4,540 per ounce. Since the start of the year, gold prices have declined by approximately US$163, or 3.8%.
The Director believes the market has already begun pricing in the risk of a stronger US dollar in the coming period, despite the continued appreciation of the Egyptian pound, prompting traders to retain part of the local premium as a hedging mechanism.
In the foreign exchange market, the Egyptian pound continued to strengthen against the US dollar. According to data from the Central Bank of Egypt, the average exchange rate declined from EGP 50.4637 per dollar on 15 June to EGP 49.9860 by the end of the week, a decrease of approximately 48 piastres, or 0.95%.
The report added that the local market witnessed strong demand for gold bars and bullion coins during the recent price decline, while demand also extended to gold jewellery as consumers took advantage of lower prices.
Small gold bars—particularly 1g, 2.5g, and 5g products—recorded the strongest demand, prompting several manufacturers to introduce pre-order systems with delivery periods ranging between four and seven days.
However, purchasing activity slowed during the final two days of the week as prices continued to fall. Many consumers postponed buying decisions in anticipation of further declines, resulting in relatively weaker trading activity compared with the beginning of the week.
The Director emphasized that the US Dollar Index will remain one of the most influential factors determining gold prices in the coming period, particularly as expectations continue to favor a restrictive monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, supporting both the US dollar and Treasury yields while reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Marsad Gold Index (MGI)
For the first time, Marsad Al Dahab introduces the Marsad Gold Index (MGI), a new analytical indicator designed to monitor the key factors influencing gold prices in Egypt and provide a deeper understanding of market dynamics.
The index shows that Egypt's gold market is no longer driven solely by movements in global gold prices but is increasingly influenced by the exchange rate, the local premium, and consumer behavior.
Global Gold Indicator
International gold prices extended their losses for a sixth consecutive week, falling by US$64, from US$4,219 to US$4,155 per ounce, remaining the primary factor weighing on local prices amid continued US dollar strength and higher Treasury yields.
Exchange Rate Indicator
The Egyptian pound posted additional gains against the US dollar, with the average exchange rate declining by approximately 48 piastres during the week, from EGP 50.4637 to EGP 49.9860, reducing the fair value of gold and increasing downward pressure on domestic prices.
Local Premium Indicator
The local premium declined significantly from EGP 332 above fair value at the beginning of the week to EGP 203 by the end of the week—a decrease of EGP 129, or 39%—indicating that a larger portion of the global decline has been transmitted to the domestic market, although gold continues to trade above its fair value.
Supply and Demand Indicator
The local market witnessed strong demand for gold bars and bullion coins over the past two weeks, particularly smaller denominations, prompting several companies to adopt pre-order systems with delivery periods ranging from four to seven days. Demand, however, slowed toward the end of the week as consumers delayed purchases while waiting for further price declines.
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Despite gold losing approximately EGP 745 since the beginning of June, the market has not experienced widespread selling, reflecting continued confidence among many consumers in gold as a long-term savings and hedging instrument, even as caution and anticipation increase ahead of next week's market developments.
Marsad Al Dahab believes that monitoring price movements alone is no longer sufficient to understand Egypt's gold market. Gold prices have become the result of simultaneous interaction between international prices, the US dollar exchange rate, the local premium, and consumer behavior—factors that the new index aims to measure on a weekly basis.
At the same time, the continued local premium of EGP 203 above fair value, together with sustained demand for gold bars and bullion coins, indicates that the market has not entered a genuine phase of weakness. Instead, it has shifted from aggressive buying during price declines to a more cautious wait-and-see approach while investors monitor global markets and the direction of the US dollar.
Marsad Al Dahab expects that gold prices during the coming week will continue to be driven primarily by three key factors: the direction of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and the domestic exchange rate, while closely monitoring investment demand within the Egyptian market.
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