Gold Declines Locally and Globally Toward Thursday’s Close as Traders Weigh Prospects of a U.S. Rate Cut

Gold prices retreated in both local and global markets on Thursday, after approaching their highest level in nearly two weeks. The decline came as investors moved to take profits and markets shifted into a cautious mode while traders reassessed the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the coming period, according to a report by the “I Saghah” gold and jewelry trading platform.

Saeed Embabi, CEO of the platform, said that local gold prices dropped by EGP 15, with 21-karat gold registering EGP 5,560 per gram, while the global ounce fell by $22 to $4,155. The price of 24-karat gold reached EGP 6,354 per gram, 18-karat gold stood at EGP 4,767, while the gold pound stabilized at EGP 44,480.

The report noted that Wednesday’s trading session saw an increase of EGP 20 in the local market, with 21-karat gold opening at EGP 5,555 and closing at EGP 5,575. Globally, the ounce rose by $31, opening at $4,133 and ending the day at $4,164.

Gold slipped today after strong gains in the previous session, which had been supported by weak economic data that strengthened expectations of a rate cut. However, traders returned to caution amid a lack of clear signs on the timing of the Fed’s next move.

Analysts noted that while gold continues to receive support from monetary easing expectations, the rise in the U.S. dollar during early trading exerted pressure on prices and prompted investors to adjust their positions ahead of data releases that could influence the trajectory of the dollar and Treasury yields. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability of interest rate cuts, but uncertainty over U.S. economic strength leaves gold sensitive to any unexpected statements or figures.

U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively steady, with investors watching closely to see whether upcoming data will confirm an economic slowdown that could push the Fed toward easing its policy, or encourage it to maintain caution for a longer period.

Despite today’s pullback, analysts believe gold remains well-supported, benefiting from safe-haven demand, persistent geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases. This is reinforced by recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials signaling openness to easing monetary policy in the near term, which has boosted expectations for another rate cut during the December 9–10 meeting.

Expectations of another rate cut have also supported a rebound in global equities from last week’s decline, driven by AI-sector valuations, improving overall risk appetite — a factor that typically works against gold. With U.S. markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, liquidity is expected to remain thin, keeping gold within a relatively tight trading range.

Recent U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture: stronger-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls, a drop in the core producer price index, and robust durable goods orders contrasted with weaker retail sales and a slight rise in unemployment. Even so, traders remain convinced that the Fed will cut rates in December, with markets pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the geopolitical front, tensions remain in focus as the China–Taiwan situation escalates following new warnings from Beijing to Japan in response to Tokyo’s suggestion that it could help defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack. Investors are also monitoring the latest developments in the Russia–Ukraine peace talks after President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed willingness to advance a U.S.-backed framework to end the war. Under these circumstances, safe-haven demand continues to support gold broadly.