Fitch Forecasts Egypt's Economy to Grow 4.6% Annually Through 2035

Fitch Ratings expects Egypt's economy to maintain solid medium-term momentum, forecasting average annual growth of 4.6% between 2026 and 2035, supported by stronger household consumption, rising investment, and continued reforms aimed at improving the country's business environment.

In its latest economic outlook, the international ratings agency said private consumption will remain the primary engine of growth, driven by Egypt's expanding population, easing inflationary pressures, and a recovery in remittance inflows from Egyptians working abroad.

Fitch also projects a gradual acceleration in investment activity over the coming decade, supported by increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) and government initiatives designed to enhance the investment climate and attract a broader base of international investors.

The agency believes these structural reforms will strengthen capital formation and improve Egypt's long-term growth prospects, particularly as authorities continue efforts to expand private-sector participation across key industries.

While Fitch expects net exports to make only a modest contribution to overall economic growth, it identified the tourism sector as a continuing source of strength for Egypt's services exports.

The agency noted that demand for imports is likely to remain robust, while export growth could be constrained by declining hydrocarbon production and weaker shipments of non-hydrocarbon goods.

To improve external balances over the longer term, Fitch emphasized the importance of expanding domestic manufacturing and production capacity to reduce reliance on imported products and strengthen export competitiveness.

Fitch said Egypt's demographic profile will continue to shape the country's economic trajectory over the next decade.

The agency projects Egypt's population will reach 132 million by 2035, with nearly half of citizens remaining under the age of 25. This youthful population is expected to provide a significant labor force and consumer base, supporting long-term economic expansion.

However, Fitch cautioned that rapid population growth will also intensify demand for employment opportunities, housing, transportation networks, and other critical infrastructure, requiring sustained public and private investment.