FAO Warns of Looming Global Food Crisis if Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Persist

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food crisis within the next six to twelve months, as mounting tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt energy and agricultural supply chains.

In a stark assessment released Wednesday, the UN agency said a closure of the strategic maritime corridor would represent more than a temporary shipping disruption, describing the risk instead as the potential beginning of a “systemic shock” to global agri-food markets.

The FAO cautioned that current decisions involving fertilizer use, agricultural imports, financing, and crop selection could determine whether food inflation escalates into a broader international crisis in the coming months.

Speaking in a podcast published on the organization’s website, FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said governments and global institutions must urgently prepare for the economic fallout of a prolonged maritime bottleneck.

“The time has come to seriously consider how to strengthen countries’ resilience against this choke point and reduce its potential impacts,” Torero said.

He added that coordinated intervention would be required from governments, international financial institutions, private-sector actors, UN agencies, and research centers to help vulnerable countries adapt to rapidly changing market conditions.

The organization said the impact of the regional conflict is already becoming visible in global food markets. The FAO Food Price Index rose for the third consecutive month in April, driven by higher energy costs and trade disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East.

According to David Laborde, mitigating the fallout will depend heavily on developing alternative land and maritime trade routes through eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea corridor.

However, Laborde warned that the capacity of those alternative routes remains limited, increasing the importance of avoiding export restrictions that could further strain global food supplies and humanitarian aid flows.

Analysts say any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil and commodity shipments, would likely push transportation and fertilizer costs sharply higher, creating ripple effects across food production systems worldwide.