Eni Warns Prolonged Iran Conflict Could Push Oil Prices to $100 by 2027

The chief executive of Italian energy major Eni has warned that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could drive global oil prices toward $100 per barrel by early 2027, raising the risk of a renewed wave of inflation and weakening global energy demand.

Speaking in an interview with the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore, Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said the global oil market has so far remained within a trading range of $80 to $100 per barrel, largely because governments have relied on strategic petroleum reserves to cushion supply disruptions.

Descalzi cautioned, however, that continued reliance on emergency stockpiles is not a sustainable long-term strategy, given the finite nature of global reserves.

According to the executive, worldwide oil inventories have been shrinking by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day, with the pace of drawdowns accelerating to 4.6 million barrels per day in May following market disruptions linked to the conflict between Iran and Israel that began earlier this year.

He warned that continued depletion of strategic reserves could leave global energy markets increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks, triggering sharp price spikes that would fuel inflationary pressures and dampen energy consumption, particularly in major economies.

Descalzi argued that strengthening energy security through greater diversification of supply sources and transportation routes represents the only durable solution. He urged countries to reduce their dependence on strategic maritime chokepoints that remain exposed to geopolitical risks.

He also called for expanded energy partnerships with producers across North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, describing those regions as important sources of more diversified and resilient energy supplies for global markets.

The Eni chief noted that the company has relatively limited exposure to the Middle East, with most of its production concentrated in Africa and Latin America, providing greater operational resilience against geopolitical disruptions.

Descalzi further highlighted the rapidly growing electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence technologies and the expansion of data centers, warning that the trend is adding a new dimension to global energy security challenges and increasing the need for long-term investment in reliable energy infrastructure.