Egypt to Remain World's Leading Wheat Importer Through 2035, OECD-FAO Report Says

Rising population, urbanization, and competitive import prices will keep Egypt at the center of global wheat trade, while world production is projected to reach 877 million tonnes by 2035.

Egypt is expected to remain one of the world's largest wheat importers through 2035, accounting for approximately 7% of global wheat imports, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 published jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The report highlights Egypt's enduring role in the global grain market, driven by structural factors including sustained population growth, rapid urbanization, and rising demand for bread and processed food products that rely heavily on wheat flour. Imported wheat is also expected to retain a price advantage over some domestically produced alternatives, reinforcing the country's reliance on international markets.

Globally, wheat production is forecast to climb to 877 million tonnes by 2035, an increase of 74 million tonnes from current levels. China, India, and the European Union are projected to account for nearly two-thirds of total global output, supported by a modest 2% expansion in harvested wheat area compared with the baseline period.

The report also projects global wheat consumption to increase by 10% over the next decade, reflecting wheat's continued importance as a staple food crop. Direct human consumption is expected to represent roughly two-thirds of total global demand, fueled by population growth and accelerating urbanization, particularly across Asia and Africa.

On the trade front, global wheat exports are expected to reach 235 million tonnes by 2035. Russia is forecast to maintain its position as the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for around 25% of global trade, or nearly 60 million tonnes annually.

The European Union is expected to remain the second-largest exporter, followed by Canada and the United States, which together are projected to contribute roughly one-quarter of global wheat exports.

According to the report, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will continue to be the world's largest wheat-importing market, reflecting limited agricultural resources and ongoing demographic growth. Egypt is expected to remain the region's dominant buyer, underscoring its strategic importance in international grain markets.

The OECD and FAO forecast the nominal international wheat price to reach approximately $307 per tonne by 2035. However, when adjusted for inflation, real wheat prices are expected to ease slightly over the long term as productivity gains and improved production efficiency help offset rising agricultural input costs.

The outlook suggests that while global wheat supplies are expected to expand steadily over the coming decade, strong demand from fast-growing import-dependent economies, particularly Egypt, will continue to shape international grain trade and market dynamics.