A new report published by the Spanish newspaper El País reveals that China’s unregistered gold purchases may be ten times higher than its official disclosures, placing the Asian giant’s real gold reserves as the second largest in the world—behind only the United States.
Journalists Enma Bonet and Guillermo Abril wrote: “Gold prices are hitting record highs, and market experts believe China is one of the principal invisible players driving this sustained surge; for some, it is the key player.” They added: “The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025, reaching $4,380 per ounce in October—a historic all-time high—despite recent pullbacks, amid growing appetite among central banks to expand their holdings of assets considered safe.”
Although this trend is global, many analysts point directly and specifically to Beijing. They widely agree that China appears to be acquiring far more gold than it reports, and that this additional, undisclosed demand is playing a crucial role in fueling the strongest gold bull market in decades.
Doubts Surround Official Figures
Bonet and Abril noted that independent reports on gold flows differ significantly from the official data released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). They wrote: “The discrepancy—echoed by advisors at several major international investment banks—has fueled widespread suspicion that a large portion of China’s gold purchases is not being reported, as part of a strategy to shield itself from geopolitical risks and reduce its reliance on the US dollar and American assets in a time of rising global fragmentation.”
In this context, Michael Haigh, Global Head of Commodity Research at Société Générale, said stockpiling gold “is a way to ensure safety and protect your currency.” He explained that China’s strategy of accumulating gold began shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—a top global gold producer—and the subsequent freezing of Russian gold, dollars, and other assets held abroad by Western governments.
Haigh added: “Countries that do not want to see similar actions taken against them grew concerned and wanted to bring their gold back within their borders,” noting that the election of President Trump accelerated this process. “There was a desire to move away from US assets because they, too, could be subject to seizure,” he said.
China’s Real Reserves: Astonishing Estimates
According to official PBOC data, China purchased gold for 12 consecutive months, bringing its bullion holdings to 2,304 tonnes—equivalent to 8% of its total foreign reserves as of the end of October—making it the world’s sixth-largest sovereign gold holder.
However, Bruce Ikemizu, Director of the Japan Bullion Market Association (JBMA), believes the official data dramatically understates China’s true holdings. He told El País: “The actual reserves of the People’s Bank of China are more than double [the declared amount]; they are around 5,000 tonnes.”
If accurate, this estimate would place China second in the world, far closer to the United States’ reserves of 8,133 tonnes. Ikemizu said the PBOC has been “reducing its exposure to the dollar and increasing its gold purchases” for months, representing “a restructuring of its reserve portfolio” aimed at reducing dependence on the US currency.
Société Générale’s estimates—based on discrepancies between bullion imports, domestic production, and official reserve figures—suggest Beijing’s real gold purchases may be ten times higher than the PBOC reports: 250 tonnes instead of 25. The French bank’s analysis draws on UK gold export data, considered one of the most reliable indicators of physical flows. This metric indicates China has added more than 1,080 tonnes of gold to its reserves since mid-2022.
Bonet and Abril wrote: “This has not happened through one-off bulk purchases but through steady, continuous accumulation.” According to their calculations, Beijing acquires an average of 33 tonnes per month during high-activity periods—a pace moderate enough to avoid destabilizing a market that reacts sharply to large transactions. They added that at this rate, China would need nearly ten years for gold to reach 20% of its international reserves.
An Era of Fear and Distrust
Adrian Ash, Head of Research at London-based BullionVault, said what is striking is that China continues to report increases in its gold holdings this year despite record-high prices—even though it is “ultimately impossible” to determine the true amount.
He added: “There have been long periods when they reported no changes at all, but this time they did—even if it was just one tonne.” He continued: “The message to the public is clear: buying gold is a good idea.”
Ash noted that this reflects a geopolitical environment increasingly dominated by “fear and distrust” among nations, pointing out that Russia has paid for shipments of Iranian-made suicide drones using gold bullion. “It is a very useful asset in times of civil or geopolitical crisis,” he said, adding that when countries as diverse as India and Poland boost their gold reserves, it is not a positive sign for global stability.
Ikemizu said: “We are living in a multipolar world,” and although the US dollar remains the dominant global reserve currency, countries are looking for other safe havens. He asked rhetorically: “What else can they trust? The Russian ruble? The euro or the Japanese yen, which are still tied to the Western financial system? The only asset they can truly trust now is gold.”
Analysts insist the trend is not a bubble. Haigh said Société Générale expects gold to break above $5,000 per ounce in a “long-lasting, sustainable uptrend,” as the PBOC and other central banks aim to avoid overheating the market while still building their reserves.
“We are living in a different world now, aren’t we?” Haigh concluded. “This is a broad, structural shift in portfolio diversification.”
Follow the latest news on Google News
