Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has declared that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and warned it could strengthen into one of the most powerful events in more than 70 years during the second half of 2026.
The bureau said sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions have met El Niño thresholds, with forecasting models indicating a strong-to-very-strong event. Around half of the models suggest it could rank among the most intense El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
The weather pattern is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Americas while triggering hotter, drier conditions across Asia, raising concerns about crop production and global food supplies.
In Australia, El Niño is typically associated with below-average rainfall, particularly along the east coast, higher daytime temperatures, and an increased risk of drought and bushfires.
The country is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat, sugar, and beef, making prolonged dry conditions a significant threat to agricultural output.
The last El Niño, which lasted from 2023 to 2024, produced Australia's driest three-month period on record, while the 2015–2016 event caused widespread drought and sharply reduced grain and oilseed production.
Scientists have also warned that climate change is likely to intensify the impacts of future El Niño events.
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