The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that artificial intelligence could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by as much as 40% by 2040, driven by greater productivity and reduced costs.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, presenting the organization's annual report on Wednesday, described current conditions as the most severe disruption to the global trading system in 80 years. She noted, however, that despite challenges to trade, growth, and development prospects, AI presents significant opportunities.
According to the report, global GDP could rise by between 12% and 13% under various AI-driven scenarios.
The WTO cautioned that inclusive growth will require targeted policies, including bridging the digital divide, investing in workforce skills, and maintaining open and predictable trade environments.
Okonjo-Iweala stressed that AI is likely to reshape labor markets, with some roles being transformed or replaced, necessitating stronger national policies on education, skills training, reskilling, and social protection.
She warned that political backlash against trade in recent decades was partly due to insufficient investment in these areas and urged governments not to repeat the same mistake with AI.
The WTO also highlighted the widening digital infrastructure gap between high-income countries and those with lower or middle incomes.
It noted a sharp rise in trade restrictions affecting AI-related goods, which surged to nearly 500 measures last year compared with about 130 in 2012. Most of these restrictions were imposed by wealthier nations and upper-middle-income countries.
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