AfDB Warns Super El Niño Could Cost Continent Up to $20 Billion

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that a potential "Super El Niño" weather event could inflict economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion across affected African countries, while triggering large-scale displacement and intensifying food insecurity, according to comments by a senior bank official.

Meteorologists expect the El Niño climate pattern, known for causing severe droughts, floods, and extreme storms across Africa, to develop into one of the strongest events on record if Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to rise.

Anthony Nyong, Director of Climate Change and Green Growth at the AfDB, said the phenomenon could reduce GDP growth in the hardest-hit countries by an average of 1% to 2%, translating into continent-wide losses of $10 billion to $20 billion.

The warning comes just months after the AfDB projected Africa's economy would expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, forecasts that were issued before concerns over a potential Super El Niño intensified.

Nyong said prolonged drought conditions are expected to persist across the Sahel, while countries struck by major storms could require years to recover, pointing to Mozambique's lengthy reconstruction following Cyclone Idai in 2019 as an example.

He warned that many African governments are trapped in what he described as a "climate finance trap," forcing them to divert funding from healthcare, education, and infrastructure projects to respond to climate-related disasters amid limited fiscal resources.

The previous El Niño episode during 2023–2024 brought severe drought to southern Africa and widespread flooding across eastern parts of the continent, reducing agricultural output, driving up food prices, and contributing to record-high sea levels.

The AfDB estimates that African farmers could lose around $330 million in income this year as a result of climate-related disruptions.

The bank also expects productivity in the fisheries sector to decline by 1% to 4%, citing warmer ocean temperatures and increasingly frequent storms.

"When these shocks occur, countries take two steps backward," Nyong said, warning against allowing vulnerable economies to slide deeper into poverty.

The AfDB plans to convene a high-level forum in September to assess how a Super El Niño could affect its investment portfolio, while preparing to restructure selected projects and help member countries secure additional financing from the Green Climate Fund and other international climate finance institutions.

Nyong said Africa may require as much as $100 billion this year to adapt to climate change, compared with previous estimates of around $50 billion. A Super El Niño alone could increase financing needs by an additional $30 billion to $50 billion, he added.

The bank also warned that worsening climate conditions could trigger significant population displacement in countries including Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria.

Nyong said maize prices, an essential staple across much of Africa, could potentially double, increasing pressure on vulnerable communities, accelerating migration, and intensifying competition for water resources and grazing land.

He said the mounting risks underscore the urgent need to strengthen Africa's resilience to climate-related disasters, a topic expected to feature prominently at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) scheduled to be held in Turkey this November.