46% of Egyptian Gold Traders Expect Market Activity to Decline Over the Next 12 Months

Marsad Al Dahab for Economic Studies has released the results of a survey conducted among 681 participants from Egypt’s gold trade sector, revealing a predominantly cautious outlook regarding the market’s performance over the next twelve months, despite gold maintaining its status as one of the most important savings and hedging assets for Egyptians.

The survey found that 45.8% of respondents expect gold market activity to decline during the coming year, while 35.1% believe conditions will remain stable at current levels. Only 18.9% anticipate a modest improvement in activity, while expectations for a significant recovery were negligible.

These findings reflect the cautious sentiment that currently dominates the market following several years of record-high gold prices, which have led many consumers to reduce purchases of gold jewelry and shift their focus toward bullion bars and gold coins as savings and investment products.

Marsad Al Dahab believes that these expectations are driven by several factors, including elevated gold prices relative to historical averages, declining consumer purchasing power, and the growing preference for investment-oriented gold products over traditional jewelry purchases. Together, these factors are limiting the prospects for a broad recovery in market activity over the near term.

According to the report, the cautious outlook should not be interpreted as a decline in confidence in gold itself. Rather, it reflects expectations regarding demand levels and sales activity within the domestic market, particularly amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding global interest rates, economic conditions, and geopolitical developments.

The report also noted that Egypt’s gold market has experienced a significant shift in recent years, with bullion bars and gold coins accounting for a growing share of purchases, while demand for jewelry has weakened due to its close relationship with household income levels and consumer spending.

Furthermore, gold continues to benefit from strong global investment demand and sustained purchases by central banks. However, a stronger recovery in the local market will largely depend on improvements in household incomes, greater economic stability, and a revival in consumer demand for gold jewelry.

The survey results suggest that Egypt’s gold market is likely to enter a period of cautious stability rather than a phase of either sharp contraction or strong expansion. While gold remains a preferred savings and investment asset, consumer demand continues to face challenges related to elevated prices and income constraints.

The findings also highlight an ongoing structural shift within the market toward bullion bars and gold coins at the expense of traditional jewelry products.

Overall, the survey indicates that the Egyptian gold market is moving into a period of cautious observation and stability over the next twelve months. A combined 80.9% of respondents expect either weaker activity or no significant change in market conditions, compared with only 18.9% who foresee a modest improvement, underscoring the conservative outlook prevailing among market participants regarding the sector’s future performance.