US Oil Companies Expect Boom under Trump in 2025

U.S. energy companies expect to see an acceleration in the issuance of drilling permits on federal lands under President-elect Donald Trump, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The outlook comes amid an improved outlook and increased activity in the sector during the Q4 of 2024, according to the survey of 134 energy companies in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico.

Trump, as part of his “drill, drill” campaign, pledged to lower fuel prices and speed up permitting for energy projects.

A third of the executives surveyed said they expected the permitting process to accelerate significantly over the next four years.

The Trump administration plans to roll out a comprehensive energy package that includes new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increased oil drilling on federal lands and waters.

One executive predicted that “the new administration will lift regulations, end green energy subsidies, and expand LNG projects, which will increase demand for natural gas.”

Some executives noted that the Trump administration may boost oilfield services companies that have been struggling recently, and that conditions should improve in the first quarter of 2025.

The survey reveals a clear divide between large and small companies when it comes to plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. About two-thirds of large companies said they intend to reduce methane emissions, while 86% plan to reduce unwanted gas flaring.

In contrast, only 29% of small companies said they intend to reduce methane, and only 14% plan to reduce flaring.

Weak natural gas prices continued to weigh on exploration and production companies during Q4 of 2024.

Companies reported that gas prices at the Waha hub in West Texas recorded negative numbers repeatedly in 2024, prompting some operators to pay to get rid of gas, which reduced oil profit margins.

Respondents to the survey expect the price of US crude to reach $71 per barrel by the end of 2025, with estimates ranging from $53 to $100 per barrel.

They also expect the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub to reach $3.19 per million British thermal units during the same period.