Report: Unilateral GERD Filling Operation's Impact on Egypt

Since 2011, water security issue came sharply into focus when Ethiopia unilaterally, and in violation of international law, announced the construction of the $4.8 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile without prior consultation of Egypt and Sudan.

To prevent detrimental effects on co-riparians Egypt and Sudan, the three parties began negotiating to come to a fair solution. After nearly a decade of failed negotiations, no solution is in sight and water insecurity in Egypt looms.

Ethiopia started unilaterally filling the dam in summer 2020 in violation of the 2015 Agreement on Declaration of Principles, and the second filling stage is to take place July 2021.

As the unilateral filling and operation of the dam will have significant economic, environmental and social repercussions, an equitable tripartite agreement must be reached to prevent the loss of Egyptian livelihoods and irreversible environmental damage.

The Egyptian embassy in the USA revealed on Tuesday that every 1 billion bcm (billion cubic meters) lost due to unilateral GERD operations lead to the elimination of 290,000 incomes in Egypt.

https://twitter.com/EgyptEmbassyUSA/status/1356702143454019584

According to the embassy, GERD resulted in eliminating 130,000 hectares of cultivated land lost, and $430 million of lost agricultural production.

Egypt’s 100 million population relies on the Nile for more than 95% of its water and re-irrigates its water several times over. An equitable, binding agreement on GERD operations is critical for the riparian countries.

Egypt’s 100 million population relies on the Nile for more than 95% of its renewable water resources.

According to an independent study on GERD by Deltares, a decrease of only 1 bcm of water could eliminate more than one million jobs and $1.8 billion in economic production annually in all economic sectors.

Urbanization would skyrocket due to rural depopulation, which would lead to an increase in unemployment, crime rates, and transnational migration, causing serious ramifications in the Middle East and Europe.

Egypt is one of the world’s most arid countries. While Ethiopia enjoys multiple renewable water resources, and an abundant 8100 cubic meters per capita (cm/pc) of freshwater annually (eight times as much as the U.N. water poverty threshold), Egypt is a desert oasis that is almost entirely dependent on the Nile for renewable water.

Egypt is left with only 560 cm/pc annually, which is expected to reach 500 cm/pc by 2025. Although Egypt is highly efficient in using its water, thanks to its policy of rescuing water for re-irrigation several times, this does not sufficiently address its abject water poverty or bridge the gap between its expanding water needs and scarce water resources.