Slight Decline in Gold Prices Locally and Globally as Markets Await Pivotal U.S. Data This Week

Gold prices in both the local Egyptian market and the global exchanges saw a modest pullback on Tuesday, as expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut next month continued to fade. This shift applied downward pressure on the precious metal, which remains one of the world’s key safe-haven assets, according to a report issued by iSagha, the gold and jewelry trading platform.

Saeed Embabi, CEO of the platform, said that domestic gold prices dropped by around 10 EGP from the start of today’s trading session, with 21-karat gold falling to 5,380 EGP per gram, while the global ounce slid about $8, settling at $4,033.

He added that 24-karat gold recorded 6,149 EGP, 18-karat gold stood at 4,611 EGP, while the gold pound stabilized at 43,040 EGP.

This mild decline comes amid widespread anticipation of key U.S. economic data due this week, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook—especially following the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which created significant gaps in official economic data.

Broad Selling Pressure and Rising Credit Concerns Intensify Market Volatility

Global markets have experienced a strong wave of sell-offs across equities, credit, currencies, and commodities, as investors brace for Nvidia’s earnings on Thursday (AEST) and the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

This sell-off has also coincided with mounting private-sector credit concerns, adding to risk-off sentiment and driving the U.S. dollar higher—factors that impose further downward pressure on gold.

Gold’s decline accelerated last week after a series of hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, slashing expectations of a December rate cut from 68% to just 40%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Conversely, Christopher Waller, one of the Fed’s most influential policymakers, attempted to calm market fears by warning of a weakening labor market and signaling support for a more accommodative stance in December. However, his comments have not been enough to halt gold’s slide so far.

U.S. Government Reopening Erodes Short-Term Support for Gold

The end of the historic U.S. government shutdown—which lasted the longest on record—removed one of the key drivers that boosted gold sharply in early October.

Still, the after-effects of the shutdown continue to distort core economic indicators, including inflation, employment, and GDP figures.

Uncertainty also deepened after Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, announced he would not seek a new term, while Kevin Hassett’s remarks supporting an aggressive rate-cut cycle fueled fresh concerns over the independence of U.S. monetary policy.

Labor Market Data and FOMC Minutes in Focus

Market attention is now squarely on delayed U.S. economic releases, led by the September nonfarm payrolls report.

If the data shows a stronger-than-expected labor market, gold could face additional downside pressure.

Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes, due Wednesday, are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations—particularly regarding officials’ views on inflation and the potential for near-term monetary easing.

Gold Remains Strong in 2025 Despite Short-Term Weakness

Despite the recent pullback, gold continues to deliver exceptional performance in 2025, rising 53.7% since the start of the year, on track for its best annual performance since 1979.

The rally has been supported by:

massive central-bank purchases,

rising investment demand,

and escalating geopolitical tensions.

China Leads the Buying Wave… and Gold Expected to Reach $4,900

In line with these trends, China increased its gold reserves by 15 tons in September, reinforcing the global shift among central banks to expand their gold holdings, according to Goldman Sachs.

The bank noted that global central-bank purchases reached 64 tons in September—more than triple August’s total.

If this momentum continues, Goldman expects monthly central-bank buying to average 80 tons during Q4 2025 and throughout 2026.

The bank reaffirmed its forecast for gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by aggressive central-bank accumulation and a rise in investor inflows as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to adopt a more accommodative policy stance.