Silver Declines Locally and Globally Amid Sharp Volatility in U.S. Interest Rate Expectations

Silver prices in the local market posted a slight drop of around 1.1% during last week’s trading, while the ounce continued its decline globally by 2%, driven by mounting uncertainty in the international economic outlook, according to a report issued by the Safe Haven Center.

The report noted that the price of 800-purity silver moved from EGP 67.25 to EGP 66.5 per gram, while 925 silver stood at EGP 77 per gram, and 999 silver reached EGP 83 per gram. The silver pound remained stable at EGP 616.

Globally, the ounce slipped by roughly one dollar, opening the week at USD 51 and closing at USD 50.

Despite the local retreat, silver remains within the record-high price range achieved this year. It touched its historical peak of around USD 55 per ounce in mid-October 2025, after rallying over 40% since late September, and it continues to trade just 8% below this all-time high.

On an annual basis, silver has risen by more than 60%, and over the past three years it has gained around 137%, according to long-term performance data.

U.S. Monetary Policy Uncertainty Fuels Market Volatility

Recent days have seen major shifts in investors’ expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, impacting futures markets, bond yields, and precious metals—particularly silver.

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December jumped to 69.7%, up sharply from 39.07% just one day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Labor market data for September—released late due to the prior government shutdown—played a role in shifting sentiment. The economy added 119,000 jobs versus expectations of around 55,000, while unemployment rose from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Data for October and November will be released together, with an additional one-week delay, meaning the upcoming FOMC meeting will rely on limited visibility into labor market conditions—despite inflation standing at 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Statements from Fed officials further intensified market fluctuations:

• John Williams (New York Fed) hinted at the possibility of cutting rates without jeopardizing the inflation path.

• Susan Collins (Boston Fed) said current rate levels are “appropriate.”

• Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) supported pausing rate adjustments for now.

Rapid Spillover to Bonds and Precious Metals

Bond markets reacted swiftly:

• The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4.8 basis points to 3.51%.

• The 10-year yield dropped 3.7 basis points to 4.067%.

This caused the yield curve to flatten further, with the spread between the two maturities widening to 55.5 basis points.

With expectations of rate cuts rising, riskier assets gained momentum—including homebuilder stocks and precious metals. Silver remains one of the most sensitive commodities to shifts in interest-rate and inflation expectations, explaining the heightened volatility.

While rate cuts typically support precious-metals prices by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, the current uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next moves is likely to keep volatility elevated in the coming weeks. Any new data on inflation, employment, or Fed commentary could trigger sharp price swings.

Gold and Silver… Notable Downturn After Record Highs

Pressure has extended to gold as well. After hitting a record high of USD 4,380 on October 17, the metal has lost 7% of its value, despite brief attempts at recovery late in October.

This reversal is partly attributed to a wave of retail euphoria last month, when long queues formed as buyers rushed to accumulate gold—often a signal of a peak that precedes a strong corrective move.

As silver began catching up with the previous rally, some investors shifted to it seeking faster gains, adding to selling pressure on gold.

Lingering Global Market Risks

Analysts warn of potential risks of a global market downturn, driven by rising Japanese bond yields and concerns over a possible bubble in the artificial-intelligence sector. Gold’s behavior in such a scenario could vary: this year it has shown a positive correlation with the S&P 500—unlike early 2025, when a stock-market drop propelled gold sharply higher.

What’s happening now in precious-metals markets reflects a clear shift in momentum. Gold and silver are facing considerable pressure despite strong long-term fundamentals. The key drivers for the next phase will be the Federal Reserve’s decisions and incoming U.S. economic data—making the end of 2025 a critical period for price direction and volatility across both metals.