Silver Continues to Rise Globally and Locally Amid Economic Uncertainty and Limited Monetary Tightening Expectations

Silver prices in local markets recorded an increase of about 3.5% during last week’s trading, while the ounce continued to climb globally by 6.3%, driven by growing uncertainty in the international economic landscape, according to a report from the Safe Haven Center.

The report indicated that the 800-grade silver gram moved from 65 to 67.25 pounds, while 925-grade reached 78 pounds, and 999-grade was around 84 pounds, with the silver pound remaining at 624 pounds.

On the global level, the ounce rose by approximately $3, opening trading at $48 and closing at $51.

The week saw a strong upswing in silver prices in global markets, fueled by expectations of potential U.S. monetary easing and a decline in economic activity indicators, which restored the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, especially amid continued volatility in U.S. economic data following the federal government’s reopening.

Uncertainty dominates the macroeconomic landscape, with preliminary indicators for October suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and declining consumer confidence, while inflationary pressures persist.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, warned that some October data may “never be completed” due to halted data collection during the shutdown, complicating the assessment of economic momentum and supporting investor flows toward silver.

Market bets on a rate cut in December fell after cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has dropped to about 50%, compared to 70% a week earlier.

Alberto Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, emphasized the limited scope for monetary easing without risks, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that inflation remains elevated at around 3%.

Despite these supporting factors, silver’s ability to maintain its current levels depends on the resilience of industrial demand and supply balance. Some forecasts indicate a potential slowdown in global industrial demand, which could curb upward momentum.

According to The Silver Institute, the market continues to experience a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, providing additional support for silver over the longer term. Analyses from Goldman Sachs also show that silver is more volatile than gold due to its higher industrial linkage.

Silver prices nearly touched $55 per ounce last Thursday, the highest level recorded four weeks ago, according to Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank. However, trading saw a downward reversal influenced by a decline in gold, alongside the previous rise appearing somewhat exaggerated, especially after the gold-to-silver ratio fell below 78, near its mid-October annual low.

This week, forecasts from the International Energy Agency further boosted silver’s momentum, projecting a sharp rise in electricity demand over the next decade, enhancing silver’s role in energy and electric transport sectors. The Silver Institute notes that electrical and electronic applications currently account for about 70% of industrial silver demand.

Supply factors continue to provide significant support, particularly after the U.S. Department of the Interior included silver—alongside copper and metallurgical coal—on the list of “critical minerals,” potentially opening the door for new trade investigations under Section 232, which previously increased tariff risks and supply pressures for other metals.

Overall, silver maintains a positive short-term outlook, supported by a combination of economic uncertainty, volatile U.S. data, and geopolitical supply risks. However, its near-term trajectory will largely depend on developments in U.S. interest rate expectations in the coming weeks.