Marsad al-Dhahab: 1.7% Increase in Global Gold Prices Within a Week

Gold prices declined in local markets during Saturday's trading, coinciding with the global stock exchange’s weekly holiday, after the ounce achieved weekly gains of 1.7%, supported by a decline in the dollar and a drop in oil prices, alongside geopolitical developments represented by Iran's announcement of opening the Strait of Hormuz, which contributed to calming inflation-related fears, according to the "Marsad al-Dhahab" report for economic studies.

Dr. Walid Farouk, a researcher in gold and jewelry affairs and director of the "Marsad al-Dhahab," stated that gold prices in the local market dropped by about 15 pounds during today’s trading compared to yesterday's close, bringing the 21-karat gold gram to 7,030 pounds, while the ounce rose on the global exchange by $82 during the week ending Friday evening to record $4,832, after touching the level of $4,900 in Friday's trading, according to World Gold Council data.

The 24-karat gold gram recorded approximately 8,034 pounds, the 18-karat reached about 6,026 pounds, while the price of the gold pound reached approximately 56,240 pounds.

Gold prices had risen during Friday's trading by about 45 pounds, as the 21-karat gold gram opened trading at 7,000 pounds, touched the level of 7,080 pounds, and closed at 7,045 pounds, while the global ounce rose by about $40, opening at $4,792, touching $4,900, and concluding at $4,832.

Global Market Movements

Gold continued to achieve gains for the fourth consecutive week, supported by the decline of the dollar and statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial navigation throughout the ceasefire period, which reflected in a decrease in oil prices and calmed inflation fears.

The yellow metal recorded its highest levels in nearly a month, driven by receding fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East after the reopening of the Strait, which represents an artery for about one-fifth of the world's oil supplies, and whose previous closure had caused a jump in energy prices and increased fears of rising inflation rates in global markets.

The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding the continued opening of the Strait during the ten-day ceasefire period, with the possibility of extension, also contributed to boosting risk appetite, as oil prices fell by more than 10%, while US stocks recorded record levels with a sharp decline in inflation risk premiums.

Despite its status as a safe haven, gold has declined by about 10% since the start of the war, affected by expectations of tightening monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar.

The director of the "Marsad al-Dhahab" explained that recent geopolitical developments may contribute to reducing the risk premium and enhancing economic stability, thereby supporting the trend toward monetary easing.

He added that the decline in tensions does not necessarily pressure gold, but may instead give it indirect support by paving the way for interest rate cuts.

He pointed out that expectations of interest rate cuts are the most influential factor in supporting current prices, especially with indicators of a slowing labor market and a decline in services inflation, which enhances the possibilities of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, with increasing expectations of a monetary easing trend in the medium term as inflationary pressures resulting from oil subside.

The $4,800 level remains a pivotal point in the price path, its sustainability depending on two main factors: progress in the diplomatic path between the United States and Iran, and the start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making the current stage one of the most complex periods in the history of the gold market.

Long-Term Gold Support Factors

Expectations for a gold rally during the second half of 2026 are based on several factors, most notably central banks continuing net purchases for the seventeenth consecutive year, as JPMorgan expects official sector purchases to reach about 755 tons in 2026 alone, a figure that far exceeds historical rates prior to 2022.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also continue to support the market after recording their largest quarterly inflows in years during the third quarter of 2025; additionally, the Federal Reserve's move toward monetary easing, alongside the gradual decline of the US dollar, reduces the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding metal.

Major financial institutions have sharply raised their gold price forecasts for the end of the year, with Goldman Sachs targeting a gold price of $5,400 per ounce by late 2026, while Bank of America, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale placed their forecasts around $6,000, driven by fiscal deficit concerns, reduced reliance on the dollar, and increased gold holdings by central banks in emerging markets.

Physical Demand in Asian Markets

In India, reports indicated that banks have stopped submitting gold and silver import requests, with shipments piling up at ports awaiting government decisions at a time when demand is witnessing a noticeable weakness despite the approach of "Akshaya Tritiya," the country's second-largest gold-buying season, due to high prices.

In China, the world's second-largest consumer, price premiums stabilized between $3 and $6 above the global price, reflecting limited demand that relies mainly on central bank purchases rather than individual consumers.