Gold Prices Rise By EGP 970 Since The Beginning Of 2025

Gold prices have risen by 26%, or EGP 970, since the beginning of trading this year. The global ounce has risen by 24%, or $614, supported by economic uncertainty, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, and growing bets on a US interest rate cut.

Gold prices closed last year at EGP 3,740, while the ounce closed at $2,624.

Gold prices rose on local markets during trading on Saturday, coinciding with the global stock exchange's weekly holiday, after the ounce reached its highest level ever at the end of the week's trading. This was supported by the escalating trade war between the United States and China and growing bets on a US interest rate cut. Gold prices rose in local markets by approximately EGP 5 during today's trading, compared to yesterday's closing price. The price of a gram of 21-karat gold reached EGP 4,710. Meanwhile, the price of an ounce on the global stock exchange closed the week with a 6.6% increase, or $200, to reach $3,238, after touching an all-time high of $3,248 in trading on Friday, April 11.

A gram of 24-karat gold reached EGP 5,383, a gram of 18-karat gold reached EGP 4,037, a gram of 14-karat gold reached EGP 3,140, ​​and the gold pound reached EGP 37,680. Gold prices rose in local markets by about 130 Egyptian pounds during trading on Friday. The price of a gram of 21-karat gold opened at 4,570 Egyptian pounds and closed at 4,700 Egyptian pounds. Meanwhile, the ounce rose on the global stock exchange by about $63, opening at $3,175, touching $3,245, and closing at $3,238.

Gold prices in local markets witnessed unprecedented increases, driven by the rise in ounces on the global stock exchange and the decline in the Egyptian pound against the dollar amid improved demand.

Surges of price increases are not ideal times to buy, and therefore, citizens should wait for prices to stabilize.

The rise in gold prices on the global stock exchange is attributed to a number of factors, including increased demand, a weaker dollar, the escalating trade war between the United States and China, and growing bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. China announced a 125% tariff on US goods effective Saturday, in retaliation for the US imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports. The new 125% tax, added to an existing 20% ​​tariff, brings the total tariff to 145%.

In a move aimed at easing trade tensions, President Trump announced on Wednesday a 90-day suspension of new tariffs on most US trading partners.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index showed a marked decline in April, falling from 57.0 to 50.8, indicating growing pessimism among households. Inflation expectations rose sharply, with the annual forecast jumping from 5% to 6.7%, and the annual forecast from 4.1% to 4.4%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 2.7% year-on-year in March, down from 3.2% and below expectations of 3.3%, indicating easing input cost pressures. However, the core PPI—which excludes food and energy—remained above the 3% threshold, recording 3.3% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in February and slightly below expectations of 3.6%.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation declining to 2.4% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.6% and below 2.8% in February. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8%, also exceeding expectations. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI fell 0.1%, while the core CPI rose 0.1%.

Some US banks have expressed increasing concerns about the likelihood of an economic recession, including Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Beck. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the probability of a US recession is 50%.

Recession fears have increased, according to Goldman Sachs, which said the probability of a recession has risen from 35% to 45% over the next 12 months.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York minutes showed that policymakers were nearly unanimous at their meeting last month that the US economy faces risks of slowing growth and accelerating inflation simultaneously.

Nearly all Fed policymakers see "risks to inflation skewed to the upside, while risks to employment skewed to the downside," according to the minutes of the March 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

UBS expects gold to continue rising, targeting a range of $3,400-$3,500. As long as uncertainty persists, demand for the yellow metal is likely to remain strong.