Gold Prices Drop 3.6% Locally Over the Week

Gold prices in local markets witnessed a 3.6% decline during last week’s trading, influenced by the rising dollar and decreased demand due to profit-taking operations, alongside investors’ evaluation of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. This is according to a report issued by "iSagha," a platform for trading gold and jewelry.

Saeed Imbabi, the platform's Executive Director, stated that the price of 21-karat gold gram decreased by about EGP 200 during the week, opening trading at EGP 5550 and closing the week at EGP 5350. Globally, the ounce declined by about $111, from $4114, closing at $4003.

He added that the 24-karat gold gram recorded EGP 6114, the 18-karat gram reached EGP 4586, and the 14-karat gram reached EGP 3567, while the price of the gold pound remained stable at EGP 42800.

Monthly Rise Despite Weekly Decline

The report indicated that gold prices rose on a monthly basis during last October by about EGP 170, a 3.3% increase. The 21-karat gram opened the month's trading at EGP 5180, touched a level of EGP 5900, before closing at EGP 5350.

Globally, the ounce rose by about $145, a 4% increase, starting the month's trading at $3858, touching a level of $4381, and then closing at $4003.

The report attributed this monthly rise to increased demand from central banks and the continued state of geopolitical and economic uncertainty in global markets.

He added that the global decline came amid market evaluation of the US Federal Reserve's policy after this week's interest rate cut, where the rise of the dollar and the stability of Treasury bond yields limited the opportunities for gold's ascent.

He pointed out that despite selling pressure, the yellow metal remains firm around the $4000 per ounce level, awaiting greater clarity on the US monetary path.

Fed Elicits Caution in Markets

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting last Wednesday, meeting market expectations. However, statements by Chairman Jerome Powell raised some doubts about the continuation of the monetary easing cycle, as he affirmed that a December rate cut is "not a done deal."

Following these statements, expectations for a December rate cut decreased from 90% to about 63%, which kept gold prices near their weekly lows at around $3900 per ounce.

The improvement in trade relations between China and the United States also contributed to reducing demand for gold as a safe haven, following the agreement between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on a one-year trade truce during the APEC summit in South Korea.

 Extended Government Shutdown and US Economic Concerns

At the same time, the US government shutdown entered its fifth week without progress, raising concerns about its impact on economic activity, especially with the approaching freeze of the SNAP (food stamp) programs, which benefit about one in eight Americans.

Important economic data is expected to be revealed this week — such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the ADP Employment report, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index — which will indicate trends in inflation and the US labor market, essential factors in determining the path of gold.

Mixed Forecasts for Global Prices

At the annual Global Precious Metals Conference organized by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), participants predicted that gold would test a resistance level slightly below $5000 per ounce by this time next year, an increase of approximately 25% from current prices.

Major banks like HSBC, Bank of America, and Société Générale agree with these forecasts, while estimates from Metals Focus suggest the possibility of gold reaching $5000 and silver reaching $60 per ounce in 2026.

In contrast, some institutions remain more cautious, with the World Bank expecting a limited rise of only 5%, and Natixis Bank estimating the average price at $3800 in 2026.

However, even these cautious outlooks do not predict a significant price drop, as the World Bank indicated that gold will remain more than 180% above the 2015-2019 average.

Central Banks Support the Upward Trend

The World Gold Council confirmed that central banks purchased about 200 tons of gold during the third quarter of 2025, and their total annual purchases are expected to range between 750 and 900 tons, which strengthens the long-term upward trend for prices.

The South Korean Central Bank also indicated during the LBMA conference that it is considering a return to gold purchases for the first time since 2013.

Despite the weekly decline, gold maintains its appeal as a strategic asset, supported by central bank policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions, in addition to economic uncertainty in the United States.