Gold prices declined in both local and global markets during Tuesday’s trading session, pressured by a steady U.S. dollar and profit-taking, amid fading concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, according to a report issued by iSagha, a platform specializing in gold and jewelry trading.
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Price Movements: Local and Global
Saeed Embabi, CEO of iSagha, stated that gold prices dropped by around EGP 5 compared to Monday’s close, with 21-karat gold now priced at EGP 5,145 per gram.
On the global stage, gold fell by $16, reaching $3,816 per ounce, after touching an all-time high earlier in the day at $3,870.
He added that:
24-karat gold stands at EGP 5,880
18-karat gold at EGP 4,410
14-karat gold at EGP 3,430
Gold pound coin stable at EGP 41,160
Embabi noted that on Monday, gold prices surged by EGP 75, opening at EGP 5,075 and closing at EGP 5,150, supported by the global rally from $3,760 to $3,828 per ounce.
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A Bullish Global Scene Despite Temporary Pullback
Despite today’s retreat, gold hit a new record high and is expected to end September with its best monthly performance in 16 years, supported by:
Persistent concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown
Growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts
Strong safe-haven demand
Gold rose to $3,870 per ounce earlier today, up 12.3% since the start of September — on track for its largest monthly gain since November 2009.
Analysts now see $4,000 per ounce as a realistic year-end target, driven by lower interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and rising institutional demand.
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Monetary Policy and U.S. Data
Markets are strongly pricing in a rate cut in October, with an 89% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed noted that the bank is open to further cuts but remains cautious about inflation.
Meanwhile, PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets on policy easing.
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose to 1,011.73 metric tons — the highest since July 2022.
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Institutional Outlook
UBS Bank expects gold to follow a bullish path toward $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, citing:
A weaker dollar
Central bank purchases
Growing ETF inflows
The bank also reaffirmed gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, while warning of potential volatility.
Deutsche Bank pointed to official sector demand and ETF holdings as primary drivers, but noted that weak jewelry demand and increased recycled supply could limit upside momentum.
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Upcoming Data and Market Impact
Investors await key U.S. data this week:
JOLTS job openings
ADP private employment
ISM manufacturing PMI
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
These will guide the Fed’s rate decisions. However, a potential government shutdown could delay official data releases.
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Local Market: Bullion Surcharge Increase
In Egypt, bullion companies plan to implement a new EGP 15 increase per gram in fabrication fees starting Wednesday, bringing the average surcharge to around EGP 80 — the largest single adjustment ever applied.
According to Embabi, this move anticipates October’s expected subsidy cuts and fuel price hikes, which will raise production costs.
He warned that the increase could add additional pressure on the market and may slow down buying activity in the near term.
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